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February 28, 2005
Baseball America Top 100
It's Top 100 Prospects Week at Baseball America, starting off today with numbers 76-100. Two Braves fall into that category - Jake Stevens at #92 and Anthony Lerew at #99. Oddly enough, if you look at the recently completed Braves Top 10, Lerew was ranked as the #5 prospect in the organization, while Stevens was at #6. I also take this to mean that the Braves will have six players in the Top 100, which is a very good ratio.
Baseball Prospectus 2005
My copy hasn't arrived yet from Amazon.com, but it looks like it started to get into readers hands over the weekend. Feel free to use the comments section of this entry to discuss the book, especially the Braves section. I'm sure I'll have plenty of comments on it once mine shows up.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 08:03 AM | Comments (29) | TrackBack
February 26, 2005
Campbell Ready for Spring
2004 2nd round pick Eric Campbell will be arriving to his first spring training early, at the request of the organization. And needless to say, he is a bit excited:
"Most minor leaguers won't come in till March 6. I'm one of 15 players the Braves selected to come in a week early," Campbell said Wednesday before going to dinner with parents Scott and Yuganda.That excitement carries over further down the article, where Campbell makes this proclamation:"I've heard it's an honor to be invited early. Among the 15, the only guy I know is Jeff Francoeur, an outfielder who was the first-round draft choice three years ago."
"It's pretty much guaranteed that I'm going to Rome, although there's a chance I could start with Myrtle Beach (of the Class A Advanced Carolina League) if I have a really good spring," Campbell said.Easy there big fella!
I'm as anxious as anybody to see Campbell carry on up the charts this season, but if he started the season in Danville I wouldn't be surprised in the least. I'd say he has around a 50% chance to start 2005 with Rome, but that all depends on where Van Pope ends up. I don't see any scenario that puts Campbell in Myrtle Beach to start the season, and he will be better off for it.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 03:54 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
February 25, 2005
Marte Prefers Third
Andy Marte will make the switch to the outfield if that's what the organization wants him to do, but for now, he is slated to start the season as the full-time third baseman for Triple-A Richmond. A phone call he received while playing in the Dominican this winter put him at ease:
After playing the outfield for a month during winter ball this year, Marte got a phone call from Marco Paddy, the club's director of Latin American operations, and was told the club had decided to halt plans to make him an outfielder.What position is Marte going to play in the majors? If I've been asked that question once, this offseason, I've been asked it a thousand times. There really is no good answer right now, other than we are just going to have to wait and see what happens. If Marte starts hot in Richmond, and the Mondesi/Jordan/Langerhans triumvirate is struggling, I wouldn't be surprised to see the outfield experiment start up again."I was very happy," said the 21-year-old, who hit .269 with 23 homers and 68 RBIs at Double-A Greenville last year.
More Marte Love, Part I
Mac points to a chat transcript from Rany Jazayerli at Baseball Prospectus where Marte to the outfield is discussed further:
macthomason (Tuscaloosa, AL): Would Andy Marte still be considered the #1 prospect if (as seems likely) shifted to an outfield corner?Hey! That guy asking the question sure has a familiar name! ;-)Rany Jazayerli: If Andy Marte played left field last year, then no, he wouldn't rank #1. On the other hand, he would probably rank no lower than #3, and it's quite possible that if he *does* switch to a corner outfield spot, his offense might blossom even faster. Bottom line is he's a monster of a prospect, and gets next to no attention.
Also included in the chat was this tidbit:
dan11995 (Atlanta, GA): Hey Rany, How would you rank Jose Capellan, Dan Meyer, and Kyle Davies? Which is the better prospect and did the Braves do themselves a disservice by trading Capellan and Meyer while choosing to keep Davies?Rany Jazayerli: I like all of them, obviously - they're all on our list. We have Davies ranked lower than both Capellan and Meyer, but it's a marginal difference, and the Braves' track record is such that the mere fact that they kept Davies is a significant point in his favor. In particular, Capellan's future is likely in relief, and Leo Mazzone could turn the pitching staff of the Joliet JackHammers into a quality bullpen, so I don't think they'll miss Capellan all that much.
More Marte Love, Part II
Matthew Pouliot from Rotoworld.com has released his annual Top 100 prospects list, where Andy Marte heads up the Braves contingent at #3, followed by Jeff Francoeur at #10, Kyle Davies at #25, and Jake Stevens at #87. Three more Braves fell outside the Top 100 - Brian McCann at #112, Wilson Betemit at #129, and Kelly Johnson at #143.
John Sickels Braves Top 20
John will be releasing his Braves Top 20 today at Minor League Ball, and I will update here when he does. Be sure to join in the conversation on his website once the list is out.
Update: The list is now up (Thanks Tanto!). Sickels expects a lot out of Jake Stevens, ranking him third overall, behind only Andy Marte and Kyle Davies. Chris Vines and Luis Atilano take the 11th and 12th spots, respectively, ahead of Macay McBride who falls in one spot behind them. I think both Vines and Atilano have a good shot at breaking out this season in Rome, similar to Jake Stevens in 2004. I also like the selection of J.C. Holt at #17.
Dayn Perry's Top 100
Perry has made it to the 21-30 range in his countdown, where we find Braves catcher Brian McCann in the #25 spot:
McCann is the best catching prospect in the minors (at least among catchers who figure to stick at the position long-term), mostly because of his tremendous power potential. Last season, McCann slugged .494 and posted an Isolated Slugging Percentage (which is slugging percentage minus batting average and is a good indicator of raw, projectable power) of .216 (more than .200 is good benchmark), all while playing at High-A Myrtle Beach, arguably the toughest hitter's park in pro ball. He hit 16 homers last season, but his 35 doubles in 385 at-bats point to further power down the road. Some scouts worry that his swing, which is long at times, will be exploited at the higher levels, but that's speculation at this point. McCann needs to increase his walk rates and refine his defense behind the plate, but his future is indeed bright.
JS on XM
No Pepper friend and Phillies blogger Tom G. from Balls, Sticks, and Stuff shot me an email on John Schuerholz's appearance on XM Radio yesterday morning. Here is what he had to say:
Asked by Larry F. Bowa what he thought were some areas of concern for the Braves in '05, JS named three in this order of importance:Great stuff Tom - thanks for sharing! As if this isn't incentive enough alone, anyone else want to tempt me to purchase XM Radio?
1. Jordan and Mondesi have to have solid years.
2. Smoltz has to be successful converting from closer to starter.
3. Middle relief has to get the ball to Kolb because Kolb "is not the dominating closer we've had in the past, he is going to put the ball in play some." In other words, I got the impression that he wants Kolb closing situations to be easy. Starting the 9th with no one on base.A caller asked what JS thought of Marte: "Marte is a stud."
Same caller asked about Jeff Francoeur: "He is a player that could eventually replace Chipper Jones as the poster boy for the organization."
P.S. - Tom is also a big Dan Meyer fan.
Farm Futures
In my latest article for Rotojunkie.com, I glanced at some of the top pitching prospects selected in last year's amateur draft. Here is a little snippet from one of my favorites, Texas Rangers 10th overall pick Thomas Diamond:
The big righty (6'-3", 230) out of the University of New Orleans tossed a combined 46 innings between short season Spokane and Low-A Clinton, going 1-2 with a 2.15 ERA. He only allowed 31 hits, while fanning 68 and walking just 13. What was even more impressive about his pro debut was that he improved nearly across the board from his 2004 season at UNO. He lowered his H/9, BB/9, ERA, and WHIP, while increasing his K/9. Impressive to say the least.Feel free to drop me a note if you have any non-Braves topics that you might like to see me cover for Rotojunkie.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 07:40 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
February 23, 2005
2005 Positional Preview: Shortstop
For the past two years, folks (including myself) have been forecasting Rafael Furcal's exit from the Braves. Most of the reasons had to do with salary constraints, although the recent DUI added even more fuel to the fire. One factor in his remaining with the team might be the lack of someone ready to step into his spot. Here's a guide to those looking to be the next Fookie - or some other horrible nickname.
Tony Pena, Jr., 24
Is it possible that Pena suffers from Attention Deficit Disorder? If so, I think that could explain why he can't manage to stand still at the plate long enough to accumulate four balls. You hear a lot about Braves prospects having trouble with plate discipline. But Pena's on a whole 'nother level. One walk every 10 ABs is an acceptable level, although not really ideal. Pena only averages a walk every 10 days! If you can overlook the lack of walks (something I find hard to do in this extreme case), everything else is moving along well enough that he could conceivably be Furcal's replacement. Coming into 2004, he had improved in every major category in each of the previous three seasons. His initial stint in AA was not as kind to him, but he did see a pretty good increase in power, especially HRs. I'm not sure his defense is as great as it was initially predicted to be, but I think he's probably still rated as above-average. His goal for 2005 should be to take small naps during each AB so maybe he can sleep his way to a walk.
Luis Hernandez, 21
Hernandez is always going to be known for his defense. His glove was reportedly MLB-ready when he was signed 4 years ago. It was the rest of him that needed work. His 703 OPS last year might not look that great, but it's a big improvement on previous years. And at such a young age, he's already showing good signs of power. He's got that walk problem, but at least he's not alone with that in this system. But here's one area where the stats just have to be misleading. To look at his stolen base percentage (57%) and the amount of double plays he hits into (12 - more than anyone but Wilson Betemit an Scott Schade), you'd think he was a 250 lb catcher. Weird. With his 3-year advantage in age and his superior defense, Hernandez definitely has the edge over Pena in being the Braves' SS of the future.
Diory Hernandez, 21
Most top international prospects are signed the day they turn 16, but Hernandez wasn't signed until a few months after his 18th birthday. Using my rudimentary logic skills, I'm going with the thesis that Hernandez was not a top-notch prospect during his teenage years. He had just a handful of ABs in Orlando in 2003. But because of his age and maybe as a sign of how the organization feels about him, he began 2004 in extended spring training and then was sent to Rome. He put up a decent average, and more impressively, the highest rate of doubles for any current middle infielder other than J.C. Holt. It looks like he'll repeat at Rome in 2005.
Eric Campbell, 19
The Braves' top draft pick in last year's draft, Campbell was a power-hitting 3B in high school. That led scouting director Roy Clark to compare him to All-Star slugger Matt Williams - who, by the way, made his debut in the majors when he was 21. Campbell's 7 HRs last year is an excellent sign of things to come.
Derrick Arnold, 21
An 8th-round pick from Tallahassee Community College, Arnold reportedly has excellent speed and a bit of power. None of that really showed in his first 49 games at Danville, but we'll give him another year to show us something.
Posted by Michael McHenry at 07:42 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
February 22, 2005
All Francoeur, All The Time
The Jeff Francoeur hype machine is firing on all cylinders this offseason, with the latest coming from David O'Brien at AJC.com. If you are a regular follower of this site you know most of this information already, but it's always good to hear things like this:
"The first word that comes to mind: a beast," catcher Johnny Estrada said. "He's a big, strong kid. When I saw him in camp last year, he really didn't have a refined swing. He's better now, and he's going to get bigger and stronger."Andy Marte has no pressure on him compared to Jeff Francoeur."If you talk to him, you don't even know he's a baseball player," said catcher Brian McCann, a 2002 second-round pick from Duluth High and Francoeur's roommate for three years in the minors. "That's a great quality. He's the best player in the minor leagues, in my opinion. But he carries himself like a regular guy."
More Prospect Lists
Rob Blackstien from Creative Sports has published the first half of his very thorough Top 20 prospects list, where Andy Marte claimed the #4 spot:
Even with the presence of uber prospect Jeff Francoeur, Marte is the Braves’ best prospect, and short of speed, he brings it all. His glove and arm are both solid at third and his bat is potent, aided by an improving batting eye. And while he could ultimately wind up in left field, he still must be regarded as a supreme prospect and excellent choice for keeper leagues.Prince Fielder, Delmon Young, and Dallas McPherson claim the three spots ahead of Marte.
Update: Thanks to Johnny in the comments for pointing out that the Baseball Prospectus Top 50 Prospects list is out. Andy Marte takes the top spot (I'm actually a bit surprised), followed by Jeff Francoeur at #27, Brian McCann at #44, and Kyle Davies at #47. Another excellent showing by the Braves. Former Braves prospects Dan Meyer and Joes Capellan came in at #29 and #40, respectively.
One nit to pick on the list overall - a tie for 49th between Mitch Einertson and Dustin Pedroia? Would anyone be too upset if one was named #49 and the other #50? Maybe there is an explanation in the roundtable discussion.
New Home On The Web
Two of the best bloggers on the scene - Richard Lederer from Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT and Bryan Smith from Wait Til Next Year - have combined forces with their new Baseball Analysts weblog. I think it is fairly obvious that I am a big fan of these guys, so please drop by their new venture and update your bookmarks.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 08:14 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
February 19, 2005
Weekend Reading
JC over at Sabernomics has posted his Brave Predictions for the upcoming season, and I agree with a lot of what he has to say (Mac does as well). Horacio Ramirez really has a lot to overcome to be successful this season, and I think there is a more than fair shot we will see Kyle Davies in the rotation sometime around June 1st. As far as Andy Marte to the outfield? I go back and forth on this one. In a perfect world, he stays at third, but Chipper isn't going anywhere. His bat is going to force the Braves to put him in the lineup somewhere, and with our current needs, the outfield is as good a place as any. He can't be worse than Chipper out there, right?
I realize it is a bit early for draft projections, but they are always fun to read no matter the time of year. Todd Morgan from the Oakland Clubhouse takes a crack at predicting the first round of the 2005 First Year Player Draft, where the Braves have the 27th overall selection:
27. Braves – Chris Volstad, RHP, R/R, 6’7, 190, Palm Beach Gardens HS (FL)Volstad has committed to play college ball for the Miami Hurricanes, but being a first round pick out of high school has a way of making kids rethink their decision to head to college. The Braves do a great job of targeting players who will come to terms quickly and successfully, so that certainly is a factor. Another thing the Braves do well is judging the makeup and character of the players they select, and in reading his 2004 AFLAC All-American profile (National Honor Society, 3.8 GPA), that doesn't seem to be an issue. The only negative I see about Volstad is that I'm not sure he will fall that far down the draft board.Always willing to take a chance on high school pitching, the Braves will happily grab Florida prep product Volstad at 27. The towering righty throws in the low-90s and repeats his delivery well for his size. His pitches tend to sink a great deal and his control is impressive. He should blossom in the Atlanta organization.
A tidbit from Nate Silver's chat transcript earlier this week at Baseball Prospectus:
hrwest (Marina del Rey, CA): Better career, Jeff Francouer (tools) or Nick Swisher (performance)?Nate Silver: Swisher is 24 now and PECOTA sees him as being worth about 2.5 wins above replacement next year, when he'll be 25. Francouer is 21 now and PECOTA sees him as being worth 3.4 wins above replacement in 2009, when he'll be 25. So Francouer is the answer I think, as those tools begin to be converted into raw performance. He's also in the right organization in Atlanta.
The release date for MVP Baseball 2005 has reportedly been pushed up to 2/22, so hopefully I will have a copy in my hands shortly thereafter. One of my favorite features from last year's game was the inclusion of Triple-A and Double-A teams, and this year the High-A teams have been added. Does this guy look familiar? ;-)
 How cool is that! |
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 07:13 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
February 18, 2005
Far East scouting paying off?
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Following the signing of Japanese outfielder Takumi Hamaoka back in December, the Braves have looked to the Far East again, this time coming to terms with 21 year-old pitcher Masayoshi Tokuda. As first reported by Major.jp on February 14th, the righty touches 93 with his fastball, and should be heading to the states in a few weeks to join the minor leaguers in spring training.
You can also view his player page at JapaneseBallplayers.com, using Babelfish to translate any page you need.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 09:38 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
February 17, 2005
Reporting Early
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Spring is finally here!
AJC.com Braves Spring Training Coverage
AJC.com Braves Spring Training Photo Gallery
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 06:54 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
February 16, 2005
Salty returning to Rome?
Rome has been a great proving ground for some of the organizations top prospects in the two seasons since the team moved from Macon. This season should provide another influx of talent to the North Georgia town, but will a couple of the better prospects from last year's squad be making a return trip? Dayton Moore thinks it is a possibility:
“(Jarrod) Saltalamacchia and (Diory) Hernandez are two of the better pure prospects from last year’s team that may be returning,” Moore said.Saltalamacchia hit .272/.348/.437 in 323 at-bats for Rome last season, registering slightly above league average in all three of those categories. He did battle some minor injuries along the way, but for a 19 year-old he was quite impressive. Hernandez hit .271/.325/.373 in 306 at-bats, all below league average except for batting average, and also made 28 errors in 87 games at short during the season."We've got to make decisions on those two, whether it’s better for them to stay in Rome for part of this season or move on to (high-Class A) Myrtle Beach.”
Spring training will determine where these two players will start the season.
Later in David Dawson's Rome News-Tribune article, Moore discusses the potential rotation and lineup that Rome fans will be treated to next season. The starting staff should comprise Luis Atilano, Chris Vines, Paul Bacot, Kelvin Villa, and Matt Harrison, with OF's Carl Loadenthal and Johan Silva, 3B Van Pope, and C Cole Armstrong comprising part of the lineup.
Regardless of where Saltalamacchia and Hernandez start the season, Rome will be putting another quality team on the field, and should be in the SAL championship hunt all season long.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 08:30 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
February 15, 2005
2005 Positional Preview: Second Base
They're not as funny as the Keystone Kops, and only one of them hails from Pennsylvania, the Keystone State. But here are the names-to-know manning the keystone sack in 2005.
Pete Orr, 26
It's impossible to tell a breakout year from a fluke one for a young player until you see what he does the next year. So what will the future say about Orr's 2004 campaign? He hit almost 80 points higher than his career average and had career highs in singles, doubles, triples and steals. Since he was a little old for the league, I'm inclined to believe that this was just a fluke, and that Orr is not quite as good as his 2004 stats would suggest. His numbers say he is a faster Nick Green with a lot less power. He has managed to parlay that into a spot on the 40-man roster and an outside chance of getting a place on Atlanta's bench.
Martin Prado, 22
Prado spent three seasons in the Dominican and rookie leagues which allowed him to skip Danville and spend all of 2004 as Rome's 2B. He displayed a decent amount of power with his 25 doubles and 6 triples. He's a good contact hitter with a .310 career average and a low amount of strikeouts. He should get the full-time job at Myrtle Beach this year, and he's the type of hitter whose numbers shouldn't really suffer in that park.
Jon Schuerholz, 25
Schuerholz has always received a lot of grief because of his last name, but we really need to separate that and evaluate him on his accomplishments instead. Here's my analysis: He sucks. I'm kidding. He does some things extremely well. He has a phenomenal walk rate that I wish every Braves' minor-leaguer could call their own. And he's a very accomplished base-stealer. But if you're about to turn 25, and you've spent 3 seasons in the minors, and you still can't post a SLG over .300, then it's really unlikely that you're going to be around much longer - regardless of your name. I was one of the few who was actually pulling for him because of who his father is, but there's nothing more to see here. Move along.
JC Holt, 22
A CF with the LSU Tigers, the Braves selected Holt in the 3rd round of the 2004 draft as a 2B. He had a very good rookie year at Danville, hitting .321/.377/.407. Low strikeouts, a ton of doubles and pretty good play defensively. What's not to like? He should be Rome's 2B in 2005.
Ovandy Suero, 23
It's one of those stat lines that you're just sure is a typo: 39 hits, 30 stolen bases. Suero finished tied for second in the organization in steals behind guys with 300 more ABs. I'm going to go out on a limb and say he's fast.
Posted by Michael McHenry at 08:47 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
February 14, 2005
Calm before the storm
As I sit here in damp, dreary Macon, I can only think of the great excitement that Thursday, February 17th will bring. That, of course, is the day the Atlanta Braves pitchers and catchers report to the Wide World of Sports complex at Disney World in Orlando for spring training. These past few days have been a little light content-wise, but expect things to change once things get into full swing down in Florida.
One hot topic of late - the possibility of trading Chipper Jones - is one of those topics that rears it's head when fans are scrounging for news during the off-season downtime. Certainly Andy Marte's presence has something to do with it, but as Mac reminds us, Chipper is a ten-and-five guy, and isn't likely headed anywhere. Mark Bowman addresses this issue as well in today's Braves Mailbag:
With his right to reject any possible trades and a contract that wouldn't be very appealing to other teams, a trade involving Chipper isn't likely.There is no perfect scenario that will squeeze Marte into the lineup when he is ready, so the "these things works themselves out" theory is the best option we have right now.Nor is it likely that Jones will have a change of heart and want to return to the outfield. With this in mind, the club tinkered with the idea of moving Marte, a solid defender at third base, to the outfield. But, for now, that option has been forgotten.
The club feels it's better to keep Marte at third base this year and just see how the next few months unfold. They are operating under the "these things work themselves out" theory.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 12:05 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
February 12, 2005
A New Beginning...
John Sickels new weblog is up and running at MinorLeagueBall.com, so stop by, register, and make it a part of your daily routine. The link has been added to the sidebar in the Luxury Suite, adjacent to his ordering site for the Prospect Handbook and newsletter.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 08:33 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
February 10, 2005
Transactions and Notes
From the latest Baseball America transactions report:
Signed OFs John Barnes and Roosevelt Brown and RHP Adam Bernero. Released RHPs Francisco Arteaga, Alexis Candelario and Eddy Castro and C Ramon Cruz.We already know about the Barnes, Brown, and Bernero signings, but how about the released players?
I cannot find any stats for Arteaga in 2004, but he did throw seven innings for Rome in 2003. Over his three seasons with the Braves since being drafted in the 38th round of the 2000 draft, he posted a 5-6 record with a 3.21 ERA in 84 innings. The 24 year-old Candelario spent 2004 with the DSL 1 squad, going 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA in 25 1/3 IP. He did manage four innings stateside in the GCL in 2003, but spent the rest of his time in the Dominican after being signed in 2002. Castro spent 2003 with DSL 1, and 2004 with DSL 2 after signing with the organization in 2002. He was 1-1 with a 0.57 ERA in 15 2/3 innings this past season, including ten strikeouts and one walk. Cruz spent four years with the organization, the past three stateside. In his 192 at-bat professional career, he hit a miniscule .182 with one homer and 16 RBI.
Marte staying put
Now that Andy Marte is officially out of the outfield plans, Dayton Moore looks to Ryan Langerhans to make a difference this year (Baseball America):
"Langy has improved his ability to make consistent contact and has added power at the same time," farm director Dayton Moore said. "He's one of the best defensive outfielders in the organization, and (manager) Bobby (Cox) loves his approach to the game. He has a chance to surprise some people this year."I like Langerhans chances to log 350-400 at-bats this season, provided he does well in spring training, and agree with Dayton that he could be a pleasant surprise.
Setting the Stage 2005
FloBrave has been knocking out the positional previews for the BravesBeat.com mother ship. Here are the first three installments:
Outfielders
Middle Infielders
Starting Pitchers
New RotoJunkie Article
Fresh Meat: The 2004 First Year Player Draft is my latest article for RotoJunkie.com. In part one, I review some the best hitting prospects to come out of the 2004 draft, from a fantasy perspective of course. Part two will cover the pitchers and should be up in another week or two.
Sidebar Updates
Last week I mentioned that the Red Reporter had joined forces with the Athletics Nation empire, and now four more blogs have made the move:
Bleed Cubbie Blue -- Formerly And Another Thing!
DRays Bay -- Formerly Ya Gotta Believe
Lookout Landing -- Formerly Leone for Third
McCovey Chronicles -- Formerly Waiting for Boof
Be sure to check out their new digs, and update your bookmarks. It also appears that a certain minor league analyst will be along for the ride as well, so stay tuned.
And although he hasn't moved anywhere, JDM's Scoresheet Rookie Reports deserves a special mention for having one of the best minor league sites on the internet. If his site isn't already one of your daily stops, make it so.
Audioscrobbler
10 Most Recent Tracks:
1. Ted Leo & The Pharmacists - Under The Hedge
2. Gene - To The City
3. The Go! Team - The Power Is On
4. The Lemonheads - Rockin' Stroll
5. Matthew Sweet - Evangeline
6. PJ Harvey - Who The F***?
7. The Mountain Goats - Introducing John Vanderslice
8. Oasis - All Around The World
9. Stanton-Miranda - Love Will Tear Us Apart (cover)
10. Of Montreal - True Friends Don't Want To Do Things Like That
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 08:56 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
February 08, 2005
Q&A With John Sickels
John Sickels is one of the top minor leagues analysts in the game today. His latest book, The Baseball Prospect Book 2005, is now available, and is loaded with hundreds of scouting reports for today's minor leaguers. It's a must own for both prospect hounds and fantasy players alike. John was gracious enough to take some time out of his busy schedule to answer a few questions on the state of the Braves farm system.
No Pepper: You do a good job mixing both the statistical and scouting approach when evaluating prospects. What is the first stat you usually look at for hitters, and also for pitchers? And from a scouting perspective, what is the main thing you want to know about a player that you can't find in the numbers?
John Sickels: When I’m being casual and just looking over some baseball cards or stats, I look at batting average first just like everyone else. If I’m being analytical, I look at plate discipline, as shown by the ratio of walks and strikeouts, in relation to plate appearances, and to each other. Then I look at power production and on-base percentage. For pitchers, when doing analysis and projections I look at K/IP, K/BB, and H/IP. Also home run rates.
When scouting a pitcher in person, I look for velocity and movement. I also pay close attention to mechanical consistency. Does the pitcher repeat his delivery well? Does he “telegraph” his pitches and tip off his curve or something? Does he look confident and in command? Does he slow down the pace too much with runners on base? That sort of thing.
NP: Jeff Francoeur is a lightning rod topic among Braves fans and minor league followers. The scouting types rave about the tools and the intangibles, while those who lean on statistics cannot overlook his sometimes poor plate discipline. The pressure is unbelievably high for him to succeed in this organization. Where do you stand on Francoeur?
JS: Well, you summed up my position on Francoeur very nicely! He has excellent tools but he still has work to do refining them. I gave him a Grade B+ in my book, but with the note that he is still somewhat raw and will need to be handled with some caution.
NP: Andy Marte and Kyle Davies are in prime position to be the next prospects from the Braves farm system to make an impact in the major leagues. What do you think the future holds for those two?
JS: I think Marte is the best overall hitting prospect, all things considered, in the minors right now. Power, defense, on-base, he offers it all. There are some guys who probably have ultimately higher ceilings (Delmon Young, etc.), but I think Marte has the best complete package at the higher levels. I gave him a Grade A.
Davies gets a B+ from me. If he stays healthy I think he’ll be a great number two starter.
NP: Low-A Rome has been a coming out party for Braves pitchers ever since the organization moved out of my hometown of Macon (yes, I'm still bitter). In 2003, it was Kyle Davies and Anthony Lerew. In 2004, it was Jake Stevens and Chuck James. In 2005, the rotation will primarily be made up of Luis Atilano, Paul Bacot, Matt Harrison, and Chris Vines. Who has the best chance at breaking out from that group?
JS: Predictions about pitching have a way of making people look stupid. All these guys have the ability to be fine pitchers but will need time to develop. I think I like Atilano and Vines a bit better than Bacot and Harrison, but that can change quickly of course. Overall I think Vines is the best bet for a big breakthrough in 2005.
NP: Speaking of Rome, they employed a tandem starter system last year for their pitchers. What are your thoughts on that type of system at the lower levels?
JS: Several clubs are experimenting with similar systems, but right now it is too early to know how it will impact the development of young pitchers. We’ll have a better idea in another two years. Personally, I don’t think experimenting with stuff like this is a bad idea at all, and it could do some pitchers a lot of good, both in controlling workload and in giving pitchers different sorts of experiences.
NP: Two players who didn't make your book have been generating a lot of buzz in Braves circles of late - Luis Hernandez and Jose Ascanio. What are your thoughts on those two prospects?
JS: Hernandez has good physical upside, but I have some serious doubts about his bat. I should probably have put him in the book, though, due to his youth. We’ll know more when we see how he does in Double-A. Ascanio should have been in the book too. His command and youth are very impressive, but I want to see more before buying into any hype just yet.
NP: What happened to Wilson Betemit? Braves fans were led to believe that he was the next great star to emerge from the Atlanta farm system, but did his numbers ever warrant the unbelievable hype?
JS: His best attribute was always his youth, his age-relative-to-competition. But he’s stagnated, for whatever reason he just hasn’t developed as the Braves hoped. It should be noted that both statheads and traditionalists expected him to develop, albeit for different reasons. Statheads liked his place on the age/competition curve, while traditionalists liked his physical tools. He just hasn’t put it together. There are all sorts of possible causes. . .poor coaching, or perhaps lack of effort on his part, or maybe he just peaked early and was as good at age 22 as he was ever going to be. Or some combination thereof.
NP: Is Ryan Langerhans capable of holding down an everyday job in the majors?
JS: I think Langerhans projects as a .260/.340/.445 player. Whether that’s good enough to play every day depends on how good your team is. It helps that he has a fine glove in the outfield. I think he’d make an excellent fourth outfielder, or a decent-enough regular if you don’t expect him to knock 30 homers.
NP: Now that your time with ESPN is over, you will be starting up a new website of your own called MinorLeagueBall.com. Would you care to discuss what your readers and fans can expect from the site?
JS: Well, getting downsized at ESPN.com was not exactly what I had in mind for my career, but we’ll make the best of it. MinorLeagueBall.com should be operational in 10 days or so. I will be posting at least once a day there, and will be free to answer questions. I’ll have prospect reports, analysis, etc., basically whatever doesn’t end up in my newsletter will end up there.
After the ESPN decision, I had to find a way to make a living while still being as accessible as possible for readers. The combination of the free-for-everyone MinorLeagueBall.com website, the subscription newsletter, and the prospect book, will hopefully work out. I’m excited about the opportunity that MinorLeagueBall.com presents. It will give me a freedom that I’ve never had before. There’s risk as well, but if there’s anything I’ve learned in life, it’s that you have to take risks sometimes.
Thanks again to John for being so gracious with his time. You can order The Baseball Prospect Book 2005 directly from John's website, and also subscribe to the John Sickels Baseball Newsletter, which gets underway on February 20th for the 2005 season.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 08:04 AM | Comments (8) | TrackBack
February 07, 2005
Saltalamacchia Interview/Timms Update
Jarrod Saltalamacchia was interviewed in the latest issue of "The Pelicans Brief", the Myrtle Beach Pelicans free newsletter. Jarrod will be handling the catching duties for the Pelicans this season, and spoke with Myrtle Beach radio broadcaster Ryan Ibbotson about the upcoming season:
On being a first round draft pick…Click Here to sign up for The Pelicans Brief.
It was kind of a shock. You never really no and there are no guarantees coming out of high school, so it was definitely an honor. People were saying that I’d be drafted in the 1st or 2nd round so I figured it would be in the top two rounds. I was really happy being in the first round. However there is no special treatment and the coaches expect more out of you to live up to expectations.On influences and role models…
I’ve always loved watching Jason Kendall because he’s so hard nosed and if you knock him down he’ll always get right back up. I’ve always tried to play like him. He’s such a great hitter, probably one of the best besides “Pudge” (Ivan Rodriguez), but I never really looked at him as a batter. I’ve always looked at him as more of a team player and that’s what I like. He’s always the first one on the field, even after a strikeout.On the possibility of playing in Myrtle Beach in 2005…
I’m real excited! I heard a lot about the wind blowing in off of the ocean and keeping the ball inside the park. As a catcher that doesn’t really affect me. I like to look out for my pitchers. When I’m batting I’ll just try to take a natural swing instead of trying to kill the ball.
Matt Timms Update
I exchanged emails with Neil Barrowcliff, the director of the 2005 Claxton Shield Tournament in Australia, about the absence of Matt Timms in the tourney. He relayed to me that Timms has a knee injury (he didn't elaborate) that caused him to miss the tournament, but may head to the states for spring training. After that, he will head back to Australia, where the Braves are sending him to the Major League Academy at the Gold Coast, so we will have to wait until at least 2006 for Timms to make his stateside debut.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 07:43 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
February 04, 2005
The **No Pepper** 2005 Top 50, Preseason Edition
What a difference a few months make, huh? In the span of one week in December, the Braves traded away two of their top pitching prospects in Jose Capellan and Dan Meyer, and also lost outfield prospect Adam Stern in the major league portion of the Rule 5 Draft, as well as Aaron Herr in the minor league portion. For many organizations, losing the likes of Capellan and Meyer would wreak havoc on the depth of their farm system, but this isn't any ol' farm system. This is the Braves, and the cupboard is still full despite all of the recent transactions.
I last posted a Top 50 list immediately after the 2004 season ended in September, and felt that a big update was due as we head into the 2005 season. Many of the rankings and player comments will stay the same, but I have added notes, fall/winter stats, and projected 2005 assignments for almost all of the players. Since the majority of the work was already done, I am going to post the entire list in one fell swoop, so enjoy!
(Note: All of the new content is in blue text)
1. Andy Marte, 3b
Marte was the consensus #1 Braves prospect heading into the season, and he did nothing this year to dispute that ranking. He was troubled on two separate occasions this season by a sprained ankle, but when he was in the lineup he was electric. His power numbers are on the rise over the past three seasons, improving from one homer in every 25.70 at-bats between 2002 and 2003 combined, to one homer in every 16.83 at-bats in 2004. Overall, he hit .269/.364/.525 in 387 at-bats, with 23 homers and 28 doubles in 2004. His secondary average of .406 was 55 % greater than the league, and his OPS of .889 was 22% greater. His K/BB was a respectable 105/58.
Marte may never become a .300 hitter, but peak numbers in the majors approaching .285 with between 30-40 homers don't seem to be out of the question. Chipper Jones move back to third base poses a minor problem in the near term for Marte's ascent to the bigs, but I have a feeling that the issue will be resolved sooner rather than later.
Update -- Marte hit .259/.369/.413 in 143 at-bats in the Dominican Winter League, including five homers and seven doubles. He also posted a 40/25 K/BB ratio. There is a very slim chance that Marte could break camp with the big club in the spring, but the more likely scenario is that he returns to Greenville or Richmond for at least the first half of the season, even getting some time in the outfield. If all goes well, expect a call-up in the second half of the year.
2. Jeff Francoeur, of
Francoeur was having an amazing season in Myrtle Beach before fracturing his cheekbone on a fouled off bunt attempt in early July. The original diagnosis had him out until the end of the season, but in true Francoeur style, he worked his way back in just a little over a month, showing us all exactly what this kid is made of. On the field for the Pelicans, Jeff hit .293/.346/.508 in 331 at-bats, with 15 homers and 26 doubles. His SEC of .293 was 19% higher than the Carolina league average, and his OPS of .854 was also 19% higher. He did strikeout 69 times and drew just 22 walks, so that is an area for improvement.
He was all set for a promotion to Double-A Greenville prior to breaking his cheekbone, and he finally made it there in late August. In 79 at-bats for the G-Braves, he hit just .197 and whiffed 14 times without drawing a walk. 2005 should bring a return to Greenville, with eyes on Atlanta by late 2006.
Update -- Jeff spent his offseason in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .281/.301/.404 in 99 at-bats for the Grand Canyon Rafters. His strikeout rate remains a moderate concern, so look for him to improve in that area this season in Mississippi. Ranked the #1 prospect in the organization this offseason by Baseball America.
3. Kyle Davies, rhp
Lost in the spotlight of Capellan and Meyer in front of him, and Jake Stevens behind him, Kyle Davies may have had the most impressive season of them all. He started the year out strong for High-A Myrtle Beach by going 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA in 75 1/3 innings, striking out 95 and walking 32. That earned him a promotion to Double-A Greenville, where he was arguably better, posting a 4-0 record with a 2.32 ERA in 62 innings, fanning 72 and walking 28. He did log one nondescript start at the end of the regular season for Triple-A Richmond, but was fantastic in his one playoff start for the R-Braves, giving up just two hits in 5 1/3 innings to send them to the IL finals.
Davies just turned 21 on September 9th, making the season he had even more impressive. The 2001 4th rounder may start 2005 back in Double-A, but the Georgia product is clearly hitting his stride and could be the top pitcher on this list next year.
Update -- With Cappy and Meyer gone, Davies is now considered the ace of the farm system. He should start the season in Triple-A Richmond and will be the first starter called up as the need arises in Atlanta.
4. Brian McCann, c
At first glance, McCann's numbers may not be impressive as some of the other top hitting prospects in the organization, but if you look a little closer, you quickly realize we have one of the top hitting catchers in all of the minor leagues. Batting from the left side, he hit .277/.337/.487 in 382 at-bats for Myrtle Beach, with 15 homers and 35 doubles (tied for best in the system). His SEC of .291 was 18% better than the league average, and his OPS was 15% greater. Combine all of that with his age (20), position, handedness, and offense suppressing ballpark, and McCann could be the long term answer behind the plate in Atlanta in a few seasons.
Update -- McCann put up an indifferent .241/.279/.328 line in the AFL, mainly due to inconsistent playing time for the Rafters. Mississippi is his most likely destination in 2005, and his stock just keeps on rising.
5. Jake Stevens, lhp
Stevens was selected in the third round of the 2003 draft, and was impressive enough in 47 innings for Orlando that season to skip over Danville and head to Rome to begin 2004. Needless to say, the 19 year-old didn't disappoint. He was 9-5 with a 2.27 ERA in 135 innings, fanning 140 and walking 39, while giving up just 100 hits for an outstanding 6.67 H/9 ratio. The sky is the limit for this young lefty, who should start next season in the pitchers haven known as Coastal Federal Field.
Update -- Could Jake make a Kyle Davies like jump this year? I don't think Double-A is out of the question in the second half of 2005.
6. Anthony Lerew, rhp
Through the end of June, Lerew was firing away in Myrtle Beach just as he had done in every previous stop in the system. He was 7-3 with a 2.53 ERA in 85 1/3 IP, but things turned south the rest of the way. From July to the end of the year, all of his numbers went the wrong direction - hits and walks went up, and strikeouts went down. The final line: 8-9, 3.75 ERA, 144 IP, 145 H, 125 SO, 46 BB. He did spend a very short time on the DL in August, but the reported cause of his troubles was newfound velocity that he was unable to harness. Hopefully that is the case - not injury - and he will find himself back on track in 2005.
Update -- Lerew should headline the Double-A Mississippi rotation in 2005.
7. Ryan Langerhans, of
Langerhans has been hovering around the top 10 or 15 Braves prospects for the past few seasons, but he really opened some eyes with this year's breakout performance. Langer hit .298/.397/.518 in 456 at-bats for Triple-A Richmond this season, cranking out 20 homers and 34 doubles in the process. He boasted a secondary average of .364, 34% higher than the league average, and an OPS of .915, 19% higher than the league. He did fan 113 times at the plate, but his 70 walks more than made up for that. He also played impeccable defense, committing just three errors in 127 games in the outfield. Ryan could be a real asset at the next level - likely as a fourth outfielder to begin with. He should get every opportunity to head north with the team next spring.
Update -- Ryan is out of options, so for all intents and purposes he will be on the 25-man roster. I think he would outperform Brian Jordan over the entire season if given the chance. We'll have to wait until spring training to see how that plays out.
8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c
Jarrod did everything you could ask for from a 19 year-old in his first year of full-season ball. He battled through a wrist injury in the middle of the season, and then had to shut it down near the end of the year with a hamstring tweak, but still managed to hit .272/.348/.437 in 323 at-bats, with 10 homers and 19 doubles. His OPS of .785 was 6% greater than the league average - especially impressive given his age and experience level. All indicators point to Jarrod continuing to progress as he moves up the ladder next season.
Update -- As soon as I finished my previous list, I felt that I had Jarrod too low at #18. Planning on a revision, I had him slated at #10, but the loss of three players ahead of him from the organization allowed him to jump all the way to #8. He should be the main man behind the plate as he tackles Coastal Federal Field in 2005.
9. Chuck James, lhp
James provided a strong 1-2 punch with Stevens in the Rome rotation in 2004. In 132 IP, he allowed just 92 hits (6.27 H/9 - wow!) on his way to a 10-5 season with a 2.25 ERA. He fanned 156 (tops on the team) and walked 48 so he showed decent command as well. By the time June rolled around, the 22 year-old had clearly shown he wasn't being challenged at the Low-A level, earning him a promotion to High-A Myrtle Beach, effective after the SAL All-Star game which he was scheduled to start. There was only one problem - he never made the start, or got that promotion.
He and Matt Esquivel were involved in an undisclosed incident in Charleston prior to the All-Star game, resulting in lengthy suspensions for both of them. When James' suspension was lifted, he was reassigned to Rome, where he spent the rest of the season overmatching his opponents, eventually being named as the top pitcher in the SAL at years end. He should start next season in Myrtle Beach, with eyes on Greenville before the season is out.
Update -- Like Stevens, James has the chance to finish the season at least one level ahead of where he starts. Further refinement of his repertoire is needed to really move him up the prospect charts.
10. Kelly Johnson, of
After spending the majority of his minor league career as a shortstop, Johnson moved to the outfield full time in 2004, and was asked to repeat at Greenville to get used to the switch. He responded with one of his best offensive seasons to date, hitting .282/.350/.468 with 16 homers and tied for the franchise lead in doubles with 35. He strikes out a decent amount, but his K/BB ratio is 2.08, so I'm not too concerned. He made eleven errors in the field, which should improve with time. Johnson should move into the Richmond outfield in 2005, with an eye on making some noise in spring training.
Update -- Johnson has an outside chance at a bench spot in the spring, but that scenario is more likely to take place heading into 2006.
11. Wilson Betemit, 3b
Betemit's back was up against the wall from the get-go this season, and he responded with the type of year that at least gives you a glimmer of hope that the former top prospect can be a contributor at the major league level in some way, shape, or form. He got off to a poor start in April - .555 OPS for the month - but had improved to a .824 OPS by the end of June, and actually joined the big club for a brief, yet unsuccessful, stint in May. He still strikes out too much (99 K/32 BB in 356 Triple-A at-bats), but his SEC of .280 was 3% greater than the IL average, and his OPS of .802 was 5% greater, all of this during his age 23 season. He may never reach the potential that many praised him with in the past, but I'd say he has a more than fair shot at earning a top reserve spot in the majors, which is ok in my book.
Update -- He should land one of the utility spots in Atlanta, but my faith in him is wearing thin. His poor DWL season didn't help either - .209/.329/.358 in 67 at-bats.
12. Billy McCarthy, of
When did we all of a sudden become healthy with outfield prospects? McCarthy started out strong at Greenville in 2004, hitting .300/.375/.485 in 233 at-bats before getting the call to Richmond in the second half of the season. He took no time at all to adjust, cranking out six homers and 13 doubles while hitting .354/.407/.539 in his 178 Triple-A at-bats. On top of that, he made just four errors in 108 games in the outfield between the two stops. The only drawback here is that he will be 25 when next season starts, so we are getting down to the nitty gritty in terms of productive years for McCarthy going forward.
Update -- Another candidate for left field in Atlanta, McCarthy will battle it out with Brian Jordan, Langerhans, and maybe Johnson in the spring. This could be your surprise winner. Hit .259/.333/.352 in 54 at-bats in the early part of the VWL before heading home.
13. Macay McBride, lhp
I liked Macay McBride a lot heading into the 2004 season. Heck, I had him as my #3 overall prospect in last years list, so of course I was disappointed to see him struggle this year. He had a tough time as a starter at the beginning of the season, but once he was moved into the bullpen, things started to click. He fanned nearly one batter per inning, so if he can cut down on the hits and walks just a bit (113 H, 46 BB in 103.1 IP), he could really entrench himself as the top lefty reliever in the organization, expediting his ascent to the majors.
Update -- Macay tossed 28 innings in the AFL, going 0-1 with a 6.11 ERA, allowing 39 hits, eight walks, and 29 strikeouts. He should start off the season in Richmond, and could be counted on in Atlanta as soon as bullpen help is needed. There is still a lot of upside in this young southpaw.
14. Blaine Boyer, rhp
Boyer had a very good year for the Pelicans, going 10-10 with a 2.98 ERA in 154 innings, fanning 95 and walking 49. He was a bit inconsistent at times, but invariably followed any poor start with a good performance the next time out. His strikeouts are a bit low for a guy who can bring it in the mid-90's, but I think it is just the continual process of learning how to pitch. He doesn't give up a lot of hits (8.06 K/9), so if he can widen the gap between his strikeouts and walks next season, his stock should really take off.
Update -- Boyer should add to a very solid Mississippi rotation to start 2005, and may crack the top ten of this list by next season.
15. Gonzalo Lopez, rhp
Gonzo battled through injury and off the field problems in 2003, but was able to bounce back with a solid campaign in 2004 to put some shine back on his star. Still just 20 this past season, Lopez was 8-5 with a 3.67 ERA in 100 2/3 innings for Rome, striking out 109 and walking just 21. His 5.19 K/BB ratio was better than every pitcher on the team - Stevens, James, all the relievers - everybody. He did miss some time in the middle part of the season with an injury to his shoulder, but bounced back strong and should be good to go next season back in Myrtle Beach.
Update -- The spring training invite should tell you what the organization thinks of his skills, but he still has to prove his maturity level has improved. Pitched in the Nicaraguan Professional League this offseason, posting a 3-3 record with a 3.38 ERA in 40 innings. He did issue an uncharacteristic 27 walks, but fanned 37 and only allowed 27 hits. Could move to Mississippi with a big first half in Myrtle Beach.
16. Scott Thorman, 1b
Thorman started out the season repeating Myrtle Beach after a poor 2003, but a hot start put him in Greenville after just 43 games with the Pelicans. He struggled with Double-A for the longest time, but things finally started coming together for him late in the season. Between the two stops, Thorman combined to hit .267/.344/.423 in 499 at-bats, with 15 homers and 25 doubles. He showed good strike zone judgment with a 1.80 K/BB ratio. Greenville looks to be his first stop next season, but he could work his way up to Richmond with another hot start.
Update -- I'm sticking with his starting spot for 2005, but let's change that to Mississippi instead of Greenville, shall we? Man, that is taking me a long time to get used to. Had a nondescript AFL, hitting .269/.309/.308 in 52 at-bats, fanning 14 times in the process.
17. Luis Hernandez, ss
Hernandez's offensive numbers may look similar to Tony Pena's, but Hernandez has one thing going for him that Pena doesn't - age. Luis is nearly three years younger than Tony and is playing just one level behind him. He hit .271/.306/.393 for Myrtle Beach this season, fanning 70 times and drawing just 16 walks in 402 at-bats. Not quite Pena-esque, but not good either. In the field, Hernandez made 12 errors in 116 games at shortstop. He has a fair shot to take over Pena's spot as the top SS prospect in the upper levels next season. I already think he has.
Update -- The more I learn about Luis, the more I am sucked into the hype. The bat is going to have to keep improving for him to keep climbing. Hit .268/.317/.321 in 114 at-bats in the VWL.
18. Zach Miner, rhp
Miner got off to a hideous start in Greenville this season. In his first five games, four of which were starts, he gave up 27 runs - 22 earned - on 35 hits, 16 strikeouts, and seven walks in just 16 1/3 innings. That was good for an 0-3 record and a 12.12 ERA. Knowing that the season was still young, Zach battled the rest of the way and came away a better pitcher at the end of the season than at the beginning. He did have a bit of gopheritis - 14 HR allowed, most on the team - but the rest of the peripheral stats were ok: 2.02 K/BB, 7.74 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 9.20 H/9. If his last start of the season is any indication (6.0 IP, 2 H, ER, 2 BB, 7 SO), Miner learned a lot this season that should carry over to 2005.
Update -- Miner joined McBride in the AFL, posting a 2-2 record with a 5.92 ERA in 24 1/3 innings. He struck out 24, walked 12, and gave up 24 hits. After not being added to the 40-man roster and being passed over in the Rule 5 draft, Zach was invited to spring training by the big club. I wouldn't be surprised if he returned to Double-A to start the season.
19. Gregor Blanco, of
Repeating Myrtle Beach in 2004 turned out similar numbers for Blanco nearly across the board:
2003: .271/.357/.375, 461 AB, 19 2B, 7 3B, 5 HR, 114 SO, 54 BB, 34 SB, 16 CS
2004: .266/.339/.401, 436 AB, 17 2B, 9 3B, 8 HR, 114 SO, 47 BB, 25 SB, 9 SB
Obviously, you would like to see more improvement in the second year, but Blanco will still only be 21 next season, hopefully in Double-A Greenville, so there still may be a chance he can contribute further down the line.
Update -- Blanco played in the Venezuelan Winter League along with several of his organization-mates. He got off to a terrible start, but corrected enough near the end of the season to hit .250/.327/.420 in 88 at-bats. 28/8 K/BB ratio wasn't very good though. Mississippi should be his calling, but there are other players that could be pushing him very soon if he doesn't take the next step forward.
20. James Jurries, 1b
I'll go ahead and say right up front that James Jurries is a difficult one to rank. The slugger started out the season in Greenville, hitting seven homers in his first 72 at-bats, earning him an early season promotion to Richmond. He played the rest of the year for the R-Braves, finishing up the season with a combined line of .274/.343/.518 with 25 homers - tops in the system. The knock on Jurries has always been his glove, so he was moved from third to first this season with hopes of alleviating that problem. I have never seen him play in the field (second-hand reports are not exactly glowing) but he had just eight errors on the season in 84 games at first and four at third, which seems like a reasonable number to me.
I had him higher in my first run at the Top 50, up around the 15 range, but I believe the guys around him have more upside, so I dropped him down a few notches. If he was in an AL organization, he may have gotten the call already as a DH - I just don't know where he fits in the long term plans of the Braves.
Update -- What to do, what to do. Jurries was left off the 40-man, and passed over in the Rule 5. He kept slugging in the VWL, hitting .280/.357/.510 in 100 at-bats, with six homers and five doubles. Richmond should be his calling in 2005, but I'm not sure after that.
21. Roman Colon, rhp
It's been a long time coming for Roman Colon, but he finally made it to the big club this season in his ninth year with the organization. Working exclusively out of the pen in 2004, Colon posted a 3.51 ERA in 77 innings between Richmond and Greenville, with a combined 69 strikeouts and 22 walks. He was sent down temporarily at the end of August in a paperwork move, but was recalled to Atlanta in September.
Update -- Set to take his rightful spot in the Atlanta bullpen in 2005, and has the stuff to stick. Threw just 13 1/3 innings in the DWL, going 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA, walking 9 and striking out 11.
22. Brayan Pena, c
Sometimes the forgotten man of the suddenly catching-deep system, Pena posted a .314/.349/.401 line in 277 at-bats for Greenville this season. None of his offensive numbers jump out at you, but he makes good contact and has a decent eye. His catching skills, which are apparently very solid, are what is going to carry him to the majors, likely in a backup capacity, and possibly in the very near future.
Update -- One of the pleasant surprises this winter, Pena hit .323/.390/.394 in 127 at-bats in the DWL. Depending on what the organization thinks of his glove, he could get the call if Eddie Perez goes down.
23. Martin Prado, 2b
Since signing with the Braves out of Venezuela in 2001, Prado has done nothing but hit. Heading into this season, he sported a .302 average in 629 at-bats between two DSL teams and the GCL. Granted, those teams aren't the best barometer, but it was good enough for him to skip over Danville and head to Rome for 2004, where he didn't disappoint. He hit .315/.363/.422 in 429 at-bats, with 25 doubles. Unlike the majority of his teammates, Prado actually has some semblance of pitch selection at the plate, walking 30 times and striking out 47. He committed just nine errors in 104 games at second base, good enough to earn him the nod as the SAL's top defensive second baseman as voted on by the coaches around the league.
Update -- Coastal Federal Field is calling in 2005. J.C. Holt will push him for the top 2B ranking in the system.
24. Matt Esquivel, of
Esquivel was red-hot through June, hitting .304/.371/.540 with 22 doubles and eleven homers, but he joined Chuck James on the suspended list in July after an unspecified team violation at the SAL All-Star game. Once he returned later in the month, his season went somewhat downhill from there, finishing up at .282/.354/.489 with 31 doubles and 16 homers - both team highs. The power is clearly there, but his plate patience is downright putrid - 140 strikeouts vs. 35 walks. In honor of Matt, Steve Doetsch, and Josh Burrus, and the rest of the Rome offense, I hereby petition to have their nickname changed from the Braves to the Windmills. Something needs to change at the plate for these guys, because it only gets harder when they have to face the Coastal Federal Field monster next season.
Update -- Not much else to say other than what was said before. Myrtle Beach is going to weed out some of these guys next season.
25. Steve Doetsch, of
I like you Doetsch, I really do, but you HAVE to cut back on those strikeouts. His 152 K's led the team, but thanks to 47 walks, his ratio wasn't as bad as Esquivel or Burrus. He finished up at .284/.353/.420 with nine homers and 24 doubles on the season, and committed just five errors in 114 games in the outfield. Lower the strikeouts and raise the walks, and we may just have something here.
Update -- Same as Esquivel. He is either going to take a step forward this season, or The Beach will eat him alive.
26. Chris Vines, rhp
Vines was drafted by the Braves in the fifth round of the 2003 draft out of Pelham HS in Birmingham, AL, but didn't see his first professional action until this season in Danville. Needless to say, the 6'5", 205 lb. righty didn't disappoint. Vines posted a 6-3 record with a 3.28 ERA in 60 1/3 innings, with a stellar 72 strikeouts (2nd in the league) against just 14 walks. That adds up to some impressive ratios: 5.14 K/BB, 10.78 K/9, and 2.10 BB/9. He could stand to miss a few more bats (8.69 H/9), but in reality that ratio is just fine. Vines is a prime candidate for a Jake Stevens type breakout next season in Rome.
Update -- The Rome rotation is going to be loaded yet again, and Vines is likely to lead the way.
27. J.C. Holt, 2b
Selected in the 3rd round of the 2004 draft, Holt stepped right into the Danville lineup in July once LSU finished up it's College World Series action. Mostly a center fielder in his final season with the Tigers, Holt was taken as a second basemen by the Braves and played there nearly exclusively for Danville (51 games at 2b, 2 at SS), committing just four errors on the season. He provided a solid presence at the top of the lineup, posting a .321/.377/.407 line with 17 steals (5 CS). His .321 AVG was good for 6th best in the Appy, and tied for 4th in the league in stolen bases. Between Martin Prado and Holt, the Braves have two solid second base prospects. We'll have to wait and see who establishes themselves as the top dog over the next couple of seasons.
Update -- I bumped him up considerably from my previous rankings. I think his high-level college experience is really going to help him advance through the system rapidly.
28. Luis Atilano, rhp
Atilano built on a fine 2003 season in the GCL with another strong performance in the Appy in 2004. He nearly doubled his strikeout ratio between the two seasons (4.00 K/9 in 2003, 7.58 in 2004) while keeping his walk rate intact (1.17 BB/9 in 2003, 1.40 in 2004). His hit totals weren't out of line - 64 in 64.1 IP - but there is always room for improvement, right? The steady progression should continue on next season in Rome.
Update -- Another headliner for the Rome staff. The organization should take it one step at a time with Atilano as he moves through the system.
29. Pete Orr, 2b
Orr essentially came out of nowhere to lead Richmond in hitting with a .320 average, good enough for fifth best in the International League. Prior to this season, the 25 year-old lefty had a career minor league average of .244 in five seasons with the Braves organization. Who knows where the turnaround came from, but it was one of the better stories of the year, and also earned him a spot on the Canadian Olympic team. He played mostly at second base, but also logged time at third, short, and the outfield, and committed just four errors all season. That versatility could land him a utility spot in the majors down the line, but at the plate, he is no more than a singles hitter.
Update -- 2005 is a big one for Orr. He will either establish himself as a major league caliber utility player, or he will fall off of this list completely. Posted a decent .261/.307/.373 line in 142 at-bats in Venezuela, adding four doubles, three triples, and two homers. Also fanned 27 times and walked just seven.
30. Buddy Hernandez, rhp
Everybody loves Buddy, but for whatever reason, he keeps getting passed up when the opportunity arises for relief help with the big club. Some say it's the size - he's listed at 5'9" - but the numbers don't lie. Hernandez posted a 2.42 ERA with 60 strikeouts, 26 walks, and just 45 hits in 67 innings of work. The walks are a bit high for a reliever, but that hit total is impressive. He should get a shot in the majors next season - hopefully it will be with the Braves.
Update -- Logged 20 innings in the VWL, going 0-2 with a 3.60 ERA. He struck out 15, and issued four walks. Looks like another go round in Richmond after being passed up in the Rule 5 draft.
31. Matt Wright, rhp
Wright posted a decent season for Myrtle Beach in 2004, going 4-6 with a 3.53 ERA in 119 2/3 innings. All of his peripheral numbers were good except for his walks per nine, which was just a hair over four. other than that, he fanned more than one batter per inning, allowed less than a hit per inning, and his K/BB ratio was a solid 2.35. Matt's season ended on a sour note though, as he was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his right arm near the end of August. He should be fine for next season.
Update -- Wright will look to establish himself as top prospect with the M-Braves in 2005.
32. Kevin Barry, rhp
I tend to undervalue top relievers in the system when in comes to making out prospect lists, and Kevin Barry falls squarely in that category. It's not that I don't think that they aren't valuable pieces to the puzzle, but rather that they are the most easily replaceable, and may not carry the weight of a top starter or position player. If you think he is a top 15 or 20 talent in the organization, you won't get much of an argument from me, but I'm comfortable where he ranks on my list.
Let's look at his combined numbers between Double-A and Triple-A this season: 59.4 IP, 40 H, 35 BB, 71 SO, 1.82 ERA, 1.26 WHIP. Not much you can argue there except the walks, but Barry counters that with a low hit total for a decent balance. At 26, now is the time to show what he can do for the organization at the major league level. He should get that opportunity next spring.
Update -- Barry picked up two saves in six innings of work in the VWL this winter, and will try to make some noise in the Richmond bullpen in 2005. Could get the call if bullpen help is needed during the season.
33. Tony Pena, ss
Pena started out the season on a mission to prove all the doubters wrong - myself included - hitting like a man possessed, but by the time the season was over, he looked like the same ol' Tony Pena to me. He posted a .255/.282/.366 line in 495 at-bats with a flat-out terrible 108/16 K/BB ratio. But for some reason, the organization is in love with him. They say it is the glove that is going to carry him to the next level, but he made 25 errors in 128 games at SS this season (he played in 130 total). For comparisons sake, as I write this, Rafael Furcal has 22 errors in 111 games and people want to run him out of town. Pena still has time to make improvements, but don't worry about saving me a seat on the bandwagon.
Update -- Hit .321/.369/.397 in 78 at-bats with four doubles, a triple, five RBI, five walks, and 12 strikeouts in the Arizona Fall League before heading down to the Dominican, where he hit .143 in 14 at-bats. Also made five errors in just 19 AFL games. He should start the 2005 season in Mississippi.
34. Onil Joseph, of
I'll eat a little bit of crow on this one. I predicted at the beginning of the season that Joseph was headed for a Carlos Duran circa 2003 performance this year in Myrtle Beach (i.e. not good), but he turned in a very solid season for the Pelicans. Joseph hit .272/.355/.322 on the year, and posted a solid 89/48 K/BB ratio. He had 114 hits on the season, but only a total of 16 extra base hits (13 doubles, 1 triple, 2 homers). He was successful in 32 of 42 stolen base attempts, which is an acceptable ratio. What does this all mean? Well, Joseph looks like a standard issue leadoff hitter as long as he keeps making contact, drawing walks, and stealing bases at a decent clip. Greenville should be his next stop in the organization.
Update -- Will need to start separating himself in Mississippi next season if he really wants to advance up the charts.
35. Mark Jurich, of
To say that Mark Jurich had a tough time adjusting to the wooden bat would be an understatement, but once he figured it out - wow! Through the end of July, Jurich was hitting a paltry .212/.307/.390 in 118 at-bats with six homers. Once August rolled around, he found his groove and went on to post final numbers on the season of .281/.363/.576 in 203 at-bats with 16 homers, breaking the all-time Danville record of 12 set by Ray McWhite in 1996. He led the team in OPS (.939), ISO (.295), and SEC (.429), and was also impressive on the league leader boards - 2nd in HR, 3rd in SLG, 3rd in XBH (27), and 4th in RBI (47).
The one caveat in all of the gaudy numbers is that Jurich is definitely old for the league at 23. Danville was the best place for him to get his feet wet as a professional, but he will be 24 by the time next season rolls around. He will need to move up the ladder quickly in 2005 to establish himself as one of the Braves top prospects.
Update -- He may skip over Rome and head straight to Myrtle Beach, but that is still to be determined. He could also make a move to first base to relieve some of the outfield playing time issues.
36. Ray Aguilar, lhp
Aguliar had his ups and downs on the field this season, but that is nothing compared to what he faced off the field with the loss of his father. Aguilar spent several weeks at home during the middle of the year, but still managed to log 118 2/3 innings on the season. He managed a combined 4.19 ERA with 79 strikeouts and 26 walks between four stops in the organization, and finished the year on a high note with a nine-inning, complete game shutout in the G-Braves final game of the season. Look for Aguilar to move up the charts next season - never discount a lefty knuckler!
Update -- Should start the season in Mississippi just to see where he is at, and could move up to Richmond if all goes well.
37. Wes Timmons, 3b
Wes Timmons intrigues me. Not in a high-ceiling, breakout type of way (he did turn 25 this season after all), but rather as a solid contributor off the bench. His offensive line for Myrtle Beach in 2004 wasn't very exciting except for one thing - he draws walks at an excellent rate. He posted 53 walks and 32 strikeouts in 377 at-bats on the season, hitting .279/.387/.377, including 24 doubles - third best on the team behind McCann and Francoeur. I'm not sure what the future holds for Timmons, but he might just walk his way into a more prominent role before his window of opportunity closes.
Update -- Timmons should find his way into the everyday lineup in Mississippi, but he getting a little long in the tooth to be considered much of a prospect.
38. Josh Burrus, of
Finally, the former Braves number one pick has started to show some improvement, but he still has a long way to go. Burrus stroked 11 homers and 30 doubles en route to a .272/.330/.410 season, but his paltry 123/33 K/BB ratio leaves a lot to be desired. He did lead Rome in runs scored with 82, and total bases with 206, but he is going to have to become much more selective at the plate - especially if he continues to be used in the leadoff spot - to further improve his stock.
Update -- Myrtle Beach is going to be a huge challenge for Burrus next season. Onil Joseph handled it pretty well - will Burrus be able to do the same?
39. Carl Loadenthal, of
Loadenthal is another college product who found success at Danville in 2004. He excelled at the plate, posting a .305/.388/.439 season with an impressive 34/32 K/BB ratio. His 60 runs were good for tops in the Appy, and his 73 hits placed him third in the league. An All-Star selection in both of his first two years, Loadenthal shoots for a third next season - most likely in Rome.
Update -- Rome does appear to be where Loadenthal will start the 2005 season, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if he finished the year in Myrtle Beach.
40. Jose Ascanio, p
As I wrote earlier, I sometimes undervalue relievers when ranking prospects, but I clearly missed the boat on Ascanio when I first made this list back in September. At the ripe young age of 19, he was outstanding out of the Rome bullpen. In 66 innings of work, Ascanio posted a 3-3 record with a 3.84 ERA in 66 IP, fanning 64 and walking just 15. He did give up six home runs, which is the cause of the high ERA in relation to the rest of his numbers. Signed in 2001 out of Venezuela, Ascanio is a slight six-footer, tipping the scales at just 150 pounds. His arm more than makes up for his lack of bulk though, as his fastball sits in the mid-nineties, and his curve and change are already average, if not advanced. This is one to watch in 2005 for sure, as he could be a closer in waiting.
41. Carlos Duran, of
Duran had an extraordinarily poor 2003 season for Myrtle Beach, forcing him to repeat the circuit in 2004. A wrist injury sidelined him at the beginning of the year, but once he was inserted into the lineup, he played like a man possessed. By the end of the season though, the real Carlos Duran came to light. He finished up the season hitting .261/.295/.372 in 234 at-bats, with seven doubles, five triples, three homers, and a paltry 47/12 K/BB ratio. Has was effective on the base paths, swiping 13 bases in 14 attempts, so he's got that going for him, which is nice, but it's going to take more that to vault him up the prospect chart in this system. Lump him in with Josh Burrus and Onil Joseph and hope one of the three will turn into a true prospect.
Update -- Mississippi should be his home in 2005, but I'm still not crazy about his long-term potential. Hit a combined .333 (17-for-51) in the VWL, with a double, triple, homer, and eight RBI. He also struck out six times and walked twice.
42. Dan Smith, lhp
Used mostly as a reliever (he did start three games this season - two in Danville, one in Rome), the 6'5" lefty continued to bring the heat at a strong clip for the D-Braves in 2004. He fanned 52 in 39.2 innings of work, walking 16 in the process, and allowing just 24 hits. That was good for a 3-1 record with a 2.27 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a ridiculous .174 opponent batting average. Not bad for an NDFA signing, huh?
Update -- Look for continued solid work from the big lefty in Rome next season, although he could make the jump to Myrtle Beach.
43. Paul Bacot, rhp
After an impressive start to his professional career in Orlando in 2003, the second round draft pick continued his good work for Danville in 2004. Bacot posted an ERA of 4.70 in 61.1 IP for the D-Braves, which obviously leaves a bit to be desired, but the rest of his peripherals were decent - 60 hits, 38 strikeouts, and 14 walks, with a 1.21 WHIP. Look for Bacot to take the next step in his development next year in Rome.
Update -- Bacot, along with Vines and Atilano, should comprise a formidable staff for the Rome Braves next season.
44. Cole Armstrong, c
The 2003 16th rounder saw minimal at-bats in the GCL last season, with only a .118 average to show for it. 2004 was a different story for the Canadian backstop though, hitting .316/.411/.471 in 174 at-bats for Danville. His 46 RBI put him second on the team behind only Mark Jurich, but the most impressive part of his campaign was the great plate discipline he displayed - 17 strikeouts against 29 walks. A left handed hitting catcher with a good eye? :drool: One thing to keep in mind though - he is six months older than Brian McCann.
Update -- Armstrong will battle Clint Sammons for playing time in Rome.
45. Maximiliano Ramirez, 3b
In last year's Top 50, I had six players from the Orlando roster making the cut - Stevens, Atilano, Bacot, Saltalamacchia, Doetsch, and Loadenthal. This year, only Maxi makes the list, but that is not to say there isn't some solid, projectable talent from the GCL squad, such as Eric Campbell, Jon Mark Owings, James Parr, and Glen Richards. I think it is more a testament to the depth of this organization that it is actually tough to stop this list at 50, when some organizations likely start to separate the wheat from the chaff at around 25.
Ramirez was signed out of Venezuela as an NDFA in 2002 and was on one of the organizations Dominican Summer League teams in 2003. He made his stateside debut this season in the GCL, hitting .275/.339/.480 in 204 at-bats as a 19 year-old. His eight homers were second best in the league, and he led the team in SLG, OPS, ISO, SEC, doubles, RBI, total bases, and games played. His 2.63 K/BB ratio is by no means hideous, but there is always room for improvement. He also made 10 errors in 42 games at the hot corner. Look for him to start next season in Danville.
Update -- Danville still seems to be the spot for Maxi next season. He will definitely be on my watch list in 2005.
46. Eric Campbell, 3b
The 2004 second rounder performed well in his first professional action, hitting .251/.306/.384 with seven homers and seven doubles for Orlando in the GCL. Campbell also got in a few games for Rome at the end of the season. I'd love to put Campbell in the top 30 on potential alone, but I'm not a scout, and haven't seen him in person yet. Therefore, I'd like to see a larger sample size before I really ramp him up the charts. The Matt Williams comparisons are promising though. He could skip Danville and head straight to Rome for the 2005 season, but Van Pope may have something to say about that.
47. Brandon Jones, of
There weren't too many players that didn't make the original list that I got emails or comments on concerning leaving them off, but Brandon Jones name came up more than others. He hit a solid .297/.366/.416 in 209 at-bats in his first professional action for Danville, including six doubles, five triples, and three home runs. He was also proficient in the outfield, making just one error in 56 games, and showed a good eye at the plate, walking 23 times against 33 strikeouts. The outfield situation at the lower levels is a bit crowded, so look for Jones to separate himself in Rome this season.
48. Van Pope, 3b
The 2004 fifth rounder out of Meridian JC in Mississippi had a solid debut for Danville. He hit .270/.333/.429 in 233 at-bats, with five homers and a team leading 18 doubles. He's going to need to make strides in his plate patience as he moves up the ladder to really move into the top prospect category.
49. JoJo Reyes, lhp
Reyes started his professional career with a bang for Orlando in 2003 - good enough in fact to jump him right over Danville and land him at Low-A Rome to start the 2004 season. He was inconsistent from the get go, sometimes getting knocked around, other times plowing right through the lineup. His control was solid (71/25 K/BB in 74.1 IP), but he just didn't miss enough bats (84 H, 10 HR). The season would end on a bad note for Reyes, as a DL stint in July revealed that he had a torn ligament in his elbow and would need Tommy John surgery to correct the tear. Look for Reyes to miss most, if not all of the 2005 season.
Update -- The majority of young pitchers who undergo TJ surgery bounce back stronger than before. Here's to hoping that is the case with Reyes, and we see him back on form in 2006.
50. Miguel Bernard, c
After seven years in the organization, the last five stateside, Bernard is finally starting to make some noise. He started off the season slow in Rome, but went on a mid-season tear to earn a promotion to Myrtle Beach. He struggled a bit at The Beach (.197/.288/.282 in 71 AB), but his earlier numbers at State Federal Field showed some potential (.277/.326/.471, 10 HR, 18 2B in 278 AB). That being said, Bernard will be 24 when next season rolls around, and is basically at the same level as Jarrod Saltalamacchia, so he will always be fighting for playing time.
Update -- Hit .200/.256/.300 in 40 at-bats in the DWL. Should be the backup to Saltalamacchia in Myrtle Beach in 2005.
The Next Ten
I'd love to squeeze every player I wanted to into the top 50, but the cut needed to be made at some point. Listed below are several players I have just outside the top 50, but are certainly worth watching (Listed in alphabetical order):
Ryan Basner, rhp -- Nice work out of the pen for Myrtle Beach. Needs to miss a few more bats (73 H in 58 2/3 IP), but K/BB ratio of 63/9 is borderline ridiculous.
Dan Curtis, rhp -- Curtis was a tough one to leave off the list, but I tend to undervalue relievers on the whole. He was decent for Greenville this season, but I'm not sure what the future holds.
Carlos Guzman, 1b -- Guzman did ok in his first season at first base. He started the season slow at the plate, but came around to finish at .252/.348/.468 with 13 homers and 26 RBI. He also fanned a lot, but not near as much as some of his teammates.
Matt Harrison, lhp -- Showed excellent command (49 SO, 10 BB in 66 IP) in a loaded Danville rotation.
Ardley Jansen, of -- Jansen started the season out in Low-A Rome, but moved up to High-A Myrtle Beach during the season, and also spent a handful of games at Double-A Greenville as a fill-in during the latter part of the season. Known mainly for his defensive abilities, Jansen compiled a .260/.335/.381 line in 354 at-bats between the three stops. He doesn't hit for much power (9 HR), doesn't draw a ton of walks (109/35 K/BB ratio), and doesn't steal bases at an effective clip (9 SB, 6 CS), but the organization seems to like him enough. He is way down the pecking order as far as outfielders go in the system.
Charlie Morton, rhp -- Another mediocre year for Morton (4.82 ERA in 117 2/3 IP, 140 H, 102 SO, 68 IP), but I still think it is going to click for him one day. Maybe it will happen in the Pelicans rotation next season.
Jon Mark Owings, of -- The Braves swayed 2004 17th round pick Owings away from a commitment to Clemson for what was described at the time as "fourth or fifth round money". He had a tough time in the GCL after signing, but wouldn't be the first prospect ever to struggle in his first taste of the pro's. There were flashes of brilliance at times, so I am very happy to have him in the organization, and am excited to see how he progresses in the coming years.
James Parr, rhp -- Drafted in the fourth round in 2004 out of high school in New Mexico, Parr logged a successful professional debut for Orlando in the GCL. He went 3-2 with a 4.24 ERA in 40 1/3 innings, striking out 40 and walking 12. Parr has the athleticism and ability to succeed as he moves up the charts in the organization.
Johan Silva, of -- Silva got his first taste of pro ball stateside this season for Orlando, and acclimated himself quite well. He led the team in walks (22) and OBP (.362) while hitting .273 with six homers in 172 at-bats. He joined Campbell in Rome for a late season taste of Low-A.
Glenn Tucker, rhp -- Tucker was very impressive out of the Pelicans bullpen, posting a 1.64 ERA in 66 IP. He allowed 55 hits, fanned 56, and walked 26 in the process. He should move right up the ladder next season and be one of the top arms in the Greenville pen.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 07:03 AM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
February 02, 2005
Camp Leo Underway
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The main minor leaguers involved in this year's camp are Kyle Davies, Anthony Lerew, Blaine Boyer, and Macay McBride, who will all work out under the watchful eyes of Mazzone and Bobby Cox. Roman Colon and newcomer Jorge Vazquez will also be in attendance.
Tim Hudson will be making his first camp appearance, along with several veterans of the camp, including Mike Hampton, John Thomson, and Horacio Ramirez. John Smoltz and Gabe White will arrive next week, while Dan Kolb, Kevin Gryboski, Chris Reitsma, and Tom Martin will not be in attendance. Those last four seem to be the ones who could benefit from this camp the most.
Creative Sports Top 10 Prospects
In advance of his Top 250 prospects list, Lawr Michaels of Creative Sports has released his Top 10 Prospects, with a flat-out shocker from the Braves organization checking in at #4:
4. Jose Ascanio (20, P, Braves): The first of three Braves top young hurlers is another who is more of the beanpole archetype. At 6', 150, a good wind could like blow Ascanio over. Conversely, as a closer, he converted nine saves, allowed just 58 hits over 65 innings, and struck out 64 while walking just 15. To reiterate some of the thoughts in the introduction, control like that as a 20-year old just has to be watched.2005 is shaping up to be the year of Ascanio. I'm starting to hear more and more positive things about this youngster, but to make anyones list as the number four prospect in all of baseball is a huge surprise. Fellow Braves pitchers Jake Stevens and Kyle Davies fall in right behind Ascanio on the Top 10:
5. Jake Stevens (20, P, Braves): Stevens, a teammate of Ascanio at Rome, was so solid as a starter, going 9-5, 2.27, with 140 whiffs over 135 innings, allowing just 100 hits, and 39 walks.For the record, all of the pitchers listed above are ranked ahead of guys like Delmon Young, Andy Marte, Casey Kotchman, Rickie Weeks, and on and on. Just thought I'd throw a little context out there, since I'm still in a state of shock.6. Kyle Davies (21, P, Braves): At 21, Davies is the old man on this list. A fourth round selection in 2001, Davies was 9-2, 2.63 at Myrtle Beach before going 4-0, 2.32 at AA Greenville and then stalling as he reached Triple -A Richmond (0-1, 9.00, but one start only). Davies hurled 142 innings last year, and whiffed 173, over just 57 walks and 100 hits.
The **No Pepper** Preseason Top 50
I am 95% done with the Top 50 update, so look for it sometime Friday morning. It is really, really long, so I'll probably leave it up all weekend for your perusal. Most of the commentary will be the same as the previous list, but I have tried to update every player, and of course added and re-ranked others.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 08:53 AM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
February 01, 2005
Closing Down The Farm
In an effort to continue the John Sickels love fest today, his final Down on the Farm column has been posted for ESPN. It covers the Top 10 Prospects for 2005 on both the hitting and pitching side of the ledger, with a slight surprise at the top of the charts:
1) Andy Marte, 3B, AtlantaAs noted in the sidebar of the article, Sickels new venture will be a daily weblog called MinorLeagueBall.com, which should get off the ground in a couple of weeks (link is dead right now). I'll post more about it once it gets cranked up.
If you don't count Joe Mauer as a rookie anymore, then there's no real consensus right now about the best hitting prospect in baseball. My pick, Marte, will probably surprise some people. But I really like his youth, power potential and improvement at each level.
(Thanks to Mac from BravesJournal.com for the tip and reminder.)
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 01:37 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Baseball Prospect Book 2005
The John Sickels Baseball Prospect Book 2005 has begun to ship, and John was kind enough to forward me the letter grades for the Braves players covered in the book to peruse while I wait for my copy to hit the mailbox. Here is the list:
Luis Atilano -- C+
Paul Bacot -- C
Kevin Barry -- C+
Ryan Basner -- C
Wilson Betemit -- C+
Blaine Boyer -- C
Eric Campbell -- C
Kyle Davies -- B+
Steve Doetsch -- C
Brady Endl -- C
Matt Esquivel -- C
Jeff Francoeur -- B+
J.C. Holt -- C+
Chuck James -- B-
Kelly Johnson -- C+
Ryan Langerhans -- B-
Anthony Lerew -- B-
Gonzalo Lopez -- C
Andy Marte -- A
Macay McBride -- C+
Brian McCann -- B+
Bill McCarthy -- C
Zach Miner -- C
James Parr -- C
Brayan Pena -- C+
Van Pope -- C
Martin Prado -- C+
Jarrod Saltalamacchia -- C+
Johan Silva -- C
Adam Stern -- C
Jacob Stevens -- B+
Jorge Vasquez -- C
Chris Vines -- C+
Matt Wright -- C
Marte looks to be only one of three hitters to receive a letter grade of A or higher in the entire book (Joel Guzman of the Dodgers and Ian Stewart of the Rockies are the other two). As Michael noted to me via IM yesterday (he already received his book!), the number of Braves prospects with a grade of B+ of higher increased to five this season, after only having three last year (Marte, McBride, and Dan Meyer). I'd say the system is doing just fine after the offseason loss of Meyer and Jose Capellan.
Once I receive my copy, I may drop in a few notes from the player comments section, but you are going to have to buy the book to read the full commentaries. Thanks again to John for forwarding this list to me.
Link Update
JD Arney has closed up shop at Reds Daily and moved his wares to the Red Reporter, joining forces with Tyler Bleszinski of Athletics Nation. Good luck with the new digs JD!
And in case you missed it, Blez recently concluded a three part interview with Oakland A's GM Billy Beane, which you can find right here: Part 1 Part 2 Part 3
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 07:36 AM | Comments (