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January 31, 2005
2005 Positional Preview: First Basemen
Other than current Atlanta Brave Adam LaRoche, the system hasn't had much recent success in grooming first basemen. The no-so-glamorous tally consists of A.J. Zapp, Wes Helms and Mike Hessman. Below are today's top 1B prospects who will try to keep their names off that ignoble list.
Scott Thorman, 23
Thorman's already had a rollercoaster of a career:
High: first-round pick in the 2000 draft
Low: shoulder surgery cost him all of 2001 season
High: great year at Macon in 2002 and named 8th best Braves prospect by Baseball America
Low: struggled at Myrtle Beach in 2003 and was re-assigned there to start 2004
I think we're still waiting for the corresponding high. He did manage to get back on track during his second stint at Hi-A. He then had some problems making contact at Greenville as evidenced by his strikeouts per times on-base (K/OB): .302 at Myrtle Beach and .579 at Greenville. His strikeouts have always been fairly moderate, but he's yet to cross the noticeable 100 Ks in a season.
He'll start out at AA Mississippi in 2005, and since he'll be slightly older than the rest of the players, he should put up some decent numbers. I say he finally turns those doubles into HRs and, if the new park is not too hard on him, he'll record more than 25. And I also think he finally tops that 100 K threshold. He's no longer the top-10 prospect that he used to be, but since there's no rush to get him to the majors, the Braves can take their time making a decision about his potential future.
James Jurries, 26
It's hard to say whether the Braves are getting exactly what they expected out of Jurries after drafting him out of Tulane in 2002. He spent most of his senior year playing 2B, but since being drafted, his defense is supposedly, um, not good which is why he moved from 3B to 1B. In fact, he's probably much better suited as a DH, although the Braves don't currently have a position like that open right now. He was also extremely adept at stealing bases while in college. He tallied 30 in his senior year and 80 for his career. He's stolen a grand total of 7 since. But there's no question about his hitting. Sure's he's hasn't batted .400 (yet!) like he did at Tulane. But he has hit .282 for his 1,000+ AB career and showed some impressive power in 2004 - 20 doubles and 25 HRs. His walks are pretty mediocre, and back-to-back years with 100+ strikeouts don't bode particularly well.
Unless he improves his defense enough to make the front office folks happier, it seems as though a trade to an AL team would be inevitable. Luckily, as a trade piece, Jurries should be very valuable for dealing with teams in that other inferior league. However it ends up, his offense or his value should be a boon for the Braves.
Carlos Guzman, 21
I checked three times, but yes indeed, Guzman's official 2005 age is just 21. It only seems like he's been around forever. He's been one of the organization's favorites since he was signed, but until 2004, it was tough to see why. He came into the year batting just .235 with a very small amount of power. But in his second stint with Rome, the average inched its way up, and his power blossomed. More than half of his hits went for extra bases, the highest rate of anyone in the system. He also increased his walk rate 34% over the previous year. His strikeouts are, and always have been, way too high, but he's definitely got time on his side to work that out.
Keith Eichas, 22
Eichas started out in a blaze after being drafted in 2003 out of a Texas junior college. In his first 16 games, he hit .455/.519/.955 which prompted me to make a bad "I like Eichas" joke on the old blog. He cooled down a bit, but in his first two rookie-league seasons, he's hit .319/.378/.460 with 25 doubles and 7 HRs in 339 ABs. The only problem showing up on his stat sheet is a lack of walks. He should get 1B at Rome all to himself, and he has the potential for a breakout season. I highly recommend some enterprising Roman to have the "I Like Eichas" buttons ready.
Other notables:
Larry Williams, 20 - Part of the Braves' bumper-crop of 2003 draft-and-follows
Manuel Rodriguez, 20 - Excellent power potential
A few players - Scott Schade, Ben Thomas and Carlos Moreta - split their time between 1B and another position like 3B or OF. I'll cover them in a special "utility" section down the road.
Next up: Second Basemen
Posted by Michael McHenry at 07:58 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 28, 2005
Spring Training
I am finalizing my plans to get down to Spring Training as we speak. As it stands right now, I will be at the Braves complex for the games of March 15th (Dodgers) and 16th (Nationals). I will be at Disney on the days surrounding those games, but mostly as a vacation with my wonderful wife (I know what's good for me!). So, has anyone else made plans to head down to Spring Training yet? If you will be there the same time as me, I'd love to know.
This will be my first time down to the complex, so if anyone has any tips/suggestions, feel free to email me or leave a comment below.
Update: My plans have been finalized, and I will definitely be at the games listed above. Thanks for all the comments below - I am ready to go today!
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 05:01 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
January 26, 2005
2005 Claxton Shield Tournament
The 2005 Claxton Shield Tournament is well underway in Australia, and a few Braves farmhands have returned home to play in their countries most prestigious annual baseball event.
Dean White is hitting .278 (5-for-18) with two RBI for the Western Australia squad, and has also committed two errors in the field. Donovan Hendricks has logged 2 2/3 scoreless innings for Victoria, walking two and striking out one, while Glen Richards has been lit up to the tune of nine runs - five earned - in 2 1/3 innings for Australian Provincial, walking three and fanning four. I do not see Matt Timms on any roster.
Former Braves bonus baby Glenn Williams is hitting .294 (5-for-17) with two doubles, a homer, and two RBI for New South Wales.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 04:42 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
More Prospect Rankings
Matthew Pouliot from Rotoworld.com has posted his Braves Top 10 Prospects, and it has all the makings of a very solid list. Andy Marte, Jeff Francoeur, Kyle Davies, and Jake Stevens grab the top four spots, with a surprise at #5:
5. Wilson BetemitWrapping up the bottom five are Kelly Johnson, Brian McCann, Macay McBride, Anthony Lerew, and Ryan Langerhans. I personally would have a hard time placing Betemit and Johnson ahead of McCann, but overall it's a good list.
Sure he’s been a major disappointment, but Betemit had an 802 OPS in Triple-A as a 22-year-old (his listed age is 24, but he was signed prior to age 16 and no one has bothered to update it). That’s really pretty good. The problem is that he’s now out of options and he still could use another year in the minors. The Braves likely will keep him as a reserve infielder, though they might seek a trade if he doesn’t put together a good spring. Betemit has power potential, especially from the left side, and he should someday settle in as a regular at third base. It isn’t likely to happen this year.
Over at FoxSports.com, the first Braves sighting has been made on Dayn Perry's Top 100:
62. Kyle Davies, RHP, Braves, Age: 21And finally, (for today anyway) Dan Quon has released his Top 100 Prospects for Rotowire.com (premium), with Andy Marte landing at #11 overall, followed closely by Jeff Francoeur at #13, and Brian McCann Further down the charts at #70.
The Braves love to draft suburban-Atlanta prep talents, and, as oddly circumscribed as such an approach might sound, it works for them. Davies, fourth-round choice in 2001, is another example of the organization's success in that regard. Davies makes hay with a low-90s fastball with good life, overhand curve and tremendous changeup. That his change is already so advanced bodes well for his future. With the departure of Dan Meyer in the Tim Hudson trade, Davies is now the best pitcher in a system that knows a thing or two about cultivating arms.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 12:32 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
January 24, 2005
2005 Positional Preview: Catchers
Sure, he’s talking about the Mets, but I bet every manager and GM has felt the same way about his catching corps. You’ve got offensive catchers who usually find their way to another position because their game-calling or agility aren’t up to snuff. Then you have a whole host of guys who play spectacular defense but aren’t really sure what do with that bat thing. And every once in a while, you come across someone who maybe, just maybe, can succeed in both roles.
The Braves are no different. Listed below are the primary catchers in the minor league system, in order of intrigue.
Brian McCann, 21
The best offensive catcher in the Braves' system... and it's not really even close. Ok, he could take a few more walks and it's certainly possible that he won't stay behind the plate. But McCann's isolated power was not only 26% better than the next best catcher, it was tied for the 3rd-best in the entire system behind only James Jurries and Andy Marte. And all this was done while playing half his games at pitcher-friendly Myrtle Beach. I'm still not sure what to make of his defense. I've read conflicting reports which can easily happen since even the experts only see players a few times a year. Here's what I'm going with for now: catch-and-throw - good; game-calling - very good; overall movement and agility - not that great. Which makes an eventual move to 1B even more likely.
No one knows how the new stadium in Pearl, MS will play, but I feel pretty safe in saying that it's going to be better for hitters than where he played in 2004. 40 doubles and 20 HRs shouldn't be out of his reach by any means. His walk rate improved a ton from '03 to '04, and it would be nice to see another jump like that. If that happens and he keep racking up the extra bases, the only question at the end of the year will be: who's more worried about their job, Johnny Estrada or Adam LaRoche?
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, 20
Salty might be the one guy in the system who can break through Casey Stengel's complaint of not having a complete, well-rounded catcher. He's defensively sound - which is probably selling him a little short. He showed decent power in his first full season with 35% of his hits going for extra bases - bested only by McCann's 48% and Miguel Bernard's 41%. And to top it off, he's a switch-hitter. He's already been compared to Javy Lopez and Jason Varitek, although when looking at their first full years in pro baseball, he out-performed them. One glaring similarity for all three is the large amount of strikeouts that they posted this early in their careers.
It will be interesting to see how well Salty handles Myrtle Beach. He's already shown some mental (not to mention physical) toughness as he battled a couple of injuries in 2004. That's always good to see just before a player heads into a place that turns HRs into routine outs. Look for his doubles total to take a jump and hope that he can bring the Ks down a little.
Brayan Pena, 23
Is it possible to peak at 19? Pena entered into his 2001 season at Danville with the reputation of a great backstop with tools galore on the offensive side. He lived up to it too, hitting .370 with 16 doubles and more walks than strikeouts in over 200 ABs. Then he turned 20 in the offseason. Uh oh. Pena still managed to keep the Ks low, but his average dropped 142 points, and there were whispers that pitchers were upset about the way he called a game. His average has bounced back above .300, but he's become a dreaded singles-hitter. And there are still questions about his defense.
So what happens when you hit for power like a backup catcher, but you don't catch like one? If game-calling is still a problem for him, maybe being at Richmond surrounded by older, veteran pitchers will help him figure it out. He's most likely not going to develop any power, so focusing on his defense is probably his best bet to a career in the majors.
Jean Boscan, 25
Now this is what I call a backup catcher! Boscan's a career .222 hitter with 29 HRs in 8 seasons, but he is excellent defensively. I bet he's also very good at packing since he seems to be constantly moving between teams during a season. He spent parts of 2001, 2002, and 2003 with three teams. And in 2004, he got a bit of a break spending time in just Greenville and Richmond. Maybe all the moving is the reason for his inability to hit? Possibly, but not likely. I guess we'll find out this year as he's most likely going to be sticking with the AAA team all year.
Miguel Bernard, 24
There's a theory that Dominican players develop slowly, not because of a lack of skills, but due to the cultural and especially language problems that arise after being plucked out of your native country at such a young age. Bernard might be a good example of that. He was one of the oldest players in the South Atlantic League before moving onto Myrtle Beach towards the end of the year. And he hit like it. His 10 HRs at Rome was not only a career high, it matched his entire career! Also, if you skip over his time in the Dominican Summer League, Bernard hit 27 doubles in 4 seasons. He hit 24 in 2004. His defense, which has always been very good, is reportedly coming along fine was well. It helps when you have the cannon for an arm that he does.
Cole Armstrong, 21
The 16th-rounder pick in 2003 put together a very nice season at Danville. After only appearing in 9 games in the GCL last season, Armstrong split time as C and DH and did a lot of things right: more walks than strikeouts, decent power and a lofty average.
Clint Sammons, 22
As Danville's primary catcher, Sammons hit very much like he did at the University of Georgia: not very well. I think it's usually safe to ignore a college player's first season after being drafted. After playing in their usual number of games, they then arrive at Orlando or Danville with no rest in a new system. While his college career sure doesn't point to any offensive success, we should give him 2005 just in case.
Other names you'll hear in 2005:
Steve Pyzik, 24 - Lots of contact, fair amount of doubles which could lead to more, but he better hurry.
Junior Guerra, 20 - Major power potential, but has taken just 6 walks in 278 ABs.
C.J. Bressoud, 20 - He's being brought around slowly after signing late in 2003.
Next up: First basemen
Posted by Michael McHenry at 04:50 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
Marte #3
Bryan Smith wrapped up his WTNY 75 this morning, with Andy Marte coming in at #3, behind only Delmon Young and Felix Hernandez, who were #1 and #2, respectively:
Everyone cites Miguel Cabrera as a comp to Marte, even John Schuerholz, but I don’t see it. Cabrera was simply a bit more raw than Marte at the same ages, never seeing the doubles go over the fence in the minors like Andy did in 2004, and never walking as much. Marte does not have Miguel’s upside, which is not a fault on him, just me saying that I don’t think the huge breakout season that has been predicted again and again will happen. Marte should stay extremely solid, and end up more like Carlos Lee (an ex-3B) than Cabrera.Bryan is right on the money about his streakiness. There is no other player in the system that I have seen go back and forth from slump to tear as much as Marte. It never extends very long either way - maybe a week or so at a time - but by the end of the season, the numbers are always there.In conclusion, Marte is an extremely great talent destined for many an All-Star game. He is a streaky player that always ends up with similar numbers. What will change Marte from solid to great will be his walks, and his consistency in selectivity. Either way, he’ll make his presence felt…soon.
Coming Soon...
Michael McHenry's first article is on the horizon this week, so keep an eye out for that. Also, I am updating the 2004 Top 50 Prospects list with a 2005 preseason edition, taking into account all of the transactions, and a few oversights, since my last list came out. It will not be a fresh re-write, but all of the player comments will be updated with offseason activities and projected 2005 assignments. Look for that next week sometime.
Also, how in the heck did I miss this last week?
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 10:00 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
January 21, 2005
Catching up
I've been really busy the past few days, so allow me to catch up on a few things I've missed.....
Spring Training NRI's
The following non-roster players have been invited to spring training: OF Jeff Francoeur, OF John Barnes, OF Roosevelt Brown, OF Esix Snead, 1B Carlos Mendez, C Brian McCann, C Miguel Bernard, C J.C. Boscan, C Brayan Pena, RHP Kevin Barry, RHP Dan Curtis, RHP Buddy Hernandez, RHP Gonzalo Lopez, RHP Zach Miner, RHP Adam Bernero, RHP Matt Childers.
So what do all of those names mean? Well, since we likely only have two spots available on the 25-man roster, most of these guys will be heading to the minors to start the season, if not outright released. Francoeur and McCann were rewarded for their prospect status, but don't really have a shot at making the big club this year. They just hope to leave a good impression with the coaching staff. The catchers were invited because all of the pitchers in camp need somebody to throw to, so don't read much into that.
I'm not sure why Gonzalo Lopez was invited, other than to see if he has his head screwed on straight. He could move quick in 2005 if everything clicks for him and he stays healthy. The rest of the pitchers will compete for one, maybe two, bullpen spots. Kevin Barry and Buddy Hernandez have yet another chance to impress and make the team. Here's hoping at least one of them gets a well deserved shot.
The rest of the bunch should fill out the roster in Richmond, although guys like Barnes and Brown could surprise and break camp as a fifth outfielder.
WTNY Top 75 Update
Bryan Smith has made it all the way up to #6, with Jeff Francoeur landing at #14:
Earlier in the year, I did a study on the patience of all the current top Major Leaguers, and how their walks and strikeouts had progressed since each level. My findings were unique, showing that Francoeur’s plate discipline has been worse than anyone else at the top. While I don’t find this to be too damning, I think it gives Francoeur more of a chance to flame out than a lot of prospects. Still, he’s been compared to Dale Murphy since his high school days, and with this organization, that’s extremely high praise. John Schuerholz alluded to the fact that Francoeur will likely break in Atlanta before Andy Marte, more due to position than anything else. With Jeff I either see a bust or an All-Star, with very little middle-ground evident.Speaking of Dale Murphy comparisons, Bryan's All-Baseball label mate Richard Lederer has an excellent piece up on The Rise and Fall of Dale Murphy, and Murphy's Hall of Fame chances. Another great read from Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT.
Look for Bryan's top five next week to see where Andy Marte will slide in.
Audioscrobbler
I like to mix in my musical tastes on this site from time to time, but instead of the monthly playlists I posted last year, I'm going to try something different this time around. Audioscrobbler is a neat (and free) little plugin I found for iTunes (also for just about any other media player out there). It tracks all of your songs played and compares them with other Audioscrobbler users to assist you in finding new music that is similar to you own tastes. Your information is kept on a personal page, which tracks your most recently played songs, top artists, and top overall songs online for others to see. The service can be a little slow to update at times, but the information is cached on their server and eventually shows up in your stats. All in all, it's a pretty cool little toy.
Here are my last ten tracks played, according to Audioscrobbler:
1 The Mountain Goats - See American Right
2 The Smiths - Some Girls Are Bigger Than Others
3 Ryan Adams - In My Time of Need
4 Pavement - Folk Jam
5 Blur - The Great Escape
6 Interpol - Obstacle 2
7 Unbunny - Massachusetts
8 Ambulance Ltd - Heavy Lifting
9 Morrissey - Everyday Is Like Sunday
10 The New Pornographers - The Electric Version
When I am running iTunes, I am in Party Shuffle mode 90% of the time, with higher rated songs selected to play more frequently. So far, the list is pretty representative of my tastes with just 440 songs run through the system randomly out of my library of nearly 7000. If you see me posting a list like this in the future, now you know what it is all about.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 08:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 20, 2005
Site News
2005 is shaping up to be the biggest and best year ever at **No Pepper**, and to that end, I'd like to share a couple of announcements with you, and also ask for your assistance in another area.
First off, Michael McHenry of Braves Report and Minor League Braves Blog fame will be joining the site as a columnist this season. I am very excited about this addition, as Michael's knowledge and passion for this organization is unparalleled. I have missed his presence on the internet since he stopped publishing his weblog, so I am very excited to see him back in action. Look for his work to start appearing on the site in the very near future.
Secondly, I have joined the staff of RotoJunkie.com as a writer for their Farm Futures section. If you are unfamiliar with them, they are an excellent fantasy sports site, and possess one of the top message boards around - The Bull Pen - of which I have been a member of for several years. I will be providing a few articles per month for them, mostly covering the minor leagues from a fantasy baseball perspective. This will not change anything here at No Pepper, and I'll be sure to link up the articles if any of you are interested. The first one has been posted right here.
Finally, I would like to ask you, the reader, your input on what you would like to see on this weblog, and what areas I can do a better job with. One of the main things I personally will be working on this season is getting out to more games and making inroads with the right people in the organization. I'd love to get some interviews lined up next season, and will be working diligently to accomplish that. I'm also going to try get down to spring training for at least a few days, but my plans are still up in the air at this point.
So, what would you like to see on this weblog? Throw anything out there, even if it seems crazy - you just never know what might stick. One idea I was thinking about was to have some game reports from readers in the various home cities the teams play in, or even on the road. If you attend games in Richmond, Pearl, Myrtle Beach, Rome, Danville, or Orlando and would like to contribute your game experience to the site, please drop me an email.
The comments section is wide open, so fire away. And if I don't say it enough, I would like to thank each and every one of the readers for their continued support, and I look forward to another great season of Braves baseball!
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 08:15 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBack
January 19, 2005
Roy Clark Interview
PerfectGame.org, the premier scouting service in the game, has an excellent interview with Atlanta Braves Scouting Director Roy Clark. In it, Clark discusses the high school vs. college debate, player makeup, and bringing kids through the system "The Braves Way":
Patrick Ebert: What are some of the things you can point to for the Braves’ lasting success?This is a really good interview for those who would like a little more insight on the Braves farm system. It's a lengthy piece, so go grab a coffee, sit back, and enjoy.Roy Clark: We like to raise our own kids. We draft mostly high school kids and we have one of the finest, if not the finest, player development programs and coaching staffs and we teach our players the right way to play. We also have a game plan in scouting, and there are certain types of players that we look for. We’re looking for high ceiling guys with championship type makeup, on and off the field.
Patrick Ebert: So much is being made about the high school versus college debate these days. Given your preference for high school players, do you believe it’s not about drafting high school versus college players but drafting the right player?
Roy Clark: There’s no question about it. When we go into that draft room we don’t sit there and line up one board and say, “Okay, here’s all the college guys that we’re not going to take and here are the high school guys that we are.” We try to take the best players. We’ve taken a lot of college guys over the years, a lot more than people think. However, with so many teams concentrating solely on college players, there’s very few of those guys left for us. We like that because more and more of the better high school guys are slipping to us, and deeper. So, we’re getting what we feel like are second and third round high school guys in the fourth and fifth round.
(Hat tip to ramadon at Sports-Boards for the link.)
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 10:22 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
WTNY 75
Bryan Smith is cranking right along on the WTNY 75. He has made it up to #31 so far, with the following Braves prospects in the fold:
36. Kyle Davies -- Davies is well-liked by the types (Schuerholz, Mazzone) that you want to be favored by, and has even been mentioned as a possible fifth starter by the Braves’ GM himself. He won’t land the job out of Spring Training, but should Horacio Ramirez suffer any setbacks, Davies is now next in line.Those are just a few of the tidbits from the player recaps, so be sure to head over to Wait Til Next Year for the full version. Look for #16-30 on Thursday, and #1-15 on Friday as Bryan wraps things up.42. Brian McCann -- Brian McCann is a very unique prospect. First of all, he’s a left-handed catcher, of which there was one regular last season (Pierzynski). Second, he shows a lot of power from the left side, which is about as rare as you can find in catchers. I really like McCann, who might be able to supplant Johnny Estrada in 2006 or 2007, probably the latter as the Braves would be best suited to take Brian slow and get the most out of Estrada.
56. Jake Stevens -- From May 10 to July 15, a streak encompassing twelve appearances, Jake Stevens was the best pitcher in professional baseball. The kid allowed just two earned runs in 58.1 innings over these two months, totaling an ERA of 0.31. His WHIP was an equally solid 0.82, the byproduct of 33 hits and fifteen walks. These two totals should show that Stevens offers both a mix of solid stuff and control, which when used together, can put forth these type of results.
In their ongoing college baseball coverage, Baseball America has listed the top 50 prospects for each class. Below are the former Braves draft picks:
Fab 50 Freshman
12. LHP Sean Doolittle, UVA (2004, 39th Rd.)
28. 2B/3B Brad Emaus, Tulane (2004, 18th Rd.)
Fab 50 Sophomores
12. LHP Keith Weiser, Miami-Ohio (2003, 18th Rd.)
Fab 50 Juniors
4. SS Tyler Greene, Ga. Tech (2002, 2nd Rd.)
48. RHP/C Kris Harvey, Clemson (2002, 5th Rd.)
Fab 50 Seniors
32. OF Ryan Patterson, LSU (2002, 34th Rd.)
Tyler Greene is the current cream of that crop, but I think Brad Emaus is really one to watch. He should play regularly as a freshman for the top ranked Green Wave, and I will be keeping a close eye on him this season.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 09:18 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 17, 2005
Brian Delgado?
Prospectus Triple Play - Atlanta Braves
The boys over at BP take a look at Andy Marte, Jeff Francoeur, and Brian McCann as hopefuls for their upcoming Top 50 Prospects list. Actually, Marte and Francoeur are pretty much locks, and I think they are pretty high on McCann, so I bet he makes it as well. It's a free article, so head over and check it out - especially the Brian McCann/Carlos Delgado comparison. Here are a few tidbits:
If Marte sticks out of training camp and racks up, say, 550 at-bats, he projects to a VORP of around 32.8. That would be third on the Braves, behind Andruw Jones and Marcus Giles. The usual caveats for young players apply; that said, there's really not any reason not to like Marte. Rookie of the Year, anyone?Francoeur has always been highly regarded in terms of his physical prowess and abilities on the field; the key is translating that to performance. It's started to come, but it's not quite there yet. He'll be 21 this season, so he has time to develop. Francoeur must improve the plate discipline; it's deteriorated as he's moved up the ladder, and major-league pitchers will eat him alive if he can't lay off marginal pitches.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 08:07 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
January 16, 2005
Sunday Reading
Not much Braves news to speak of over the past few days, so here are a couple of links (courtesy of Baseball Primer) to keep you occupied during the downtime.
Baseball In The Dominican -- A's Outfielder Byrnes is beloved in Dominican Republic.
"He asked one of the coaches to hit him flyballs really far, and all of a sudden, he slammed full-speed into the fence," Ravelo said, demonstrating the expression of horror he had that day. "We'd just put padding in it for the first time, thank goodness. The coach yelled. 'What are you DOING?' and Eric said, 'I just wanted to make sure I could do that in a game.' That coach didn't want to hit to him anymore."
Hammer Time -- Hank Aaron on Barry Bonds, and the upcoming chase for the record (reg. required un:bselig@mlb.com pw:bselig).
"People say he shouldn't have the record? Hogwash," Aaron says. "A guy can take steroids, drugs, whatever. He still has to be able to hit that Roger Clemens 96-mile-an-hour fastball. Steroids don't help you hit that fastball."On the Braves front, Mark Bowman from MLB.com takes a cursory glance at Carlos Duran and Gregor Blanco.Still, Aaron wonders.
"You fantasize about how many home runs we could hit if we were on drugs," he says. "Of course, you still had to hit that fastball."
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 05:11 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 14, 2005
Wait Til Next Year Top 75
Bryan Smith kicked off his WTNY 75 with the honorable mention list, comprised of the 25 players who just missed the cut, but still fall within the Top 100. Braves catching prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia made the list:
Given the rigors of the catching position and such a long season, you have to credit Jarrod with the way he handled himself in the 2004 season. He didn’t do anything spectacular, though he showed talent both as a hitter and a receiver. You have to love a switch-hitter behind the plate, and even the best in baseball (Victor Martinez) wasn’t in high-A until he was 22, Jarrod will be at 20. Salty needs to cut down on his strikeouts, since his K% was a fairly poor 25.6 last season. The average could use a boost, though is his .270/.350/.420 line continues, I don’t think anyone can really complain. The largest worry for Salty should be the Braves logjam of catchers with Johnny Estrada and Brian McCann, in which he falls third. Still, the Braves will wait as long as they can to see if Jarrod blossoms into the hitter that led to his high draft selection.Check back with Wait Til Next Year all next week as Bryan counts down the top 75 prospects in the minor leagues.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 06:21 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Orr Honored
One of the most pleasant surprises for the Richmond Braves last season was the play of second baseman/utility man Pete Orr. That play carried over to Team Canada's Olympic run in Athens, and has earned him the Senior National Team MVP Award from Baseball Canada.
Orr will receive the award during the Baseball Canada Awards Banquet tomorrow. Congratulations Pete!
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 06:14 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
January 13, 2005
My day has been made
MLB.com set to cast Net over minor league baseball:
Major League Baseball, at its owners meeting Thursday in Phoenix, is expected to announce that mlb.com will oversee Internet and interactive media services for minor league baseball.Minor league radio feeds through local stations and websites are an iffy proposition at best, so leveraging the MLB.com technology to improve these broadcasts is a great thing. On top of that, real-time game stats? :drool:The 10-year deal with the National Association of Professional Baseball Leagues, governing more than 200 teams, means mlb.com will bring online mass marketing to the minors, whose attendance reached nearly 40 million last year.
Starting next season, mlb.com will sell minor league tickets and merchandise online and gradually increase live game audio and video coverage of games. Eventually, real-time game stats are expected to be available online for all minor league teams.
(Hat tip to the Primates)
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 11:03 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
Van Hekken ready for a fresh start
As many of you know by now, the Braves have signed former Detroit Tigers pitcher Andy Van Hekken to a minor league contract for the 2005 season. The Grand Rapids Press caught up with Van Hekken and talked to him about getting a fresh start with the Braves organization:
"I got a good offer from Detroit," said Van Hekken, a 6-foot-3 left-hander who pitched for the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens the past two seasons.Van Hekken should fill out the Richmond staff in 2005, and if things break right he may see some time in the bigs late in the season, a la Travis Smith in 2004."It was between Detroit and Atlanta. The two offers were very, very close," he said. "I just felt Atlanta would be a better situation for me."
The Tigers are placing a premium on developing power pitchers throughout their farm system instead of control pitchers like Van Hekken, who rarely touches 90 mph on the radar gun.
"I'm still looking at myself as a starting pitcher," he said. "(The Braves) like my style of pitching and they've had some success with those types of pitchers."
Andy Van Hekken stats @ The Baseball Cube
Fantasy Baseball -- For all of you stat projection hounds and fantasy players, Dan Szymborski has updated his 2005 ZiPS Projections for all of the major leagues. Also, Yahoo! Fantasy Sports has completed it's Baseball Experts Draft and posted it online for your perusal.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 08:04 AM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
January 12, 2005
Braves Sign Japanese High Schooler
As first reported by Major.jp on 12/02/2004, the Atlanta Braves have come to terms with Japanese high school outfielder Takumi Hamaoka. Since I cannot read Japanese, the best I know from the Babel Fish translation is that he throws righty and bats lefty, and "the foot is fast". His dream is to make the major leagues within three years. Here's hoping his dream comes true.
Edit: Here is the Google Translation.
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Sickels no longer with ESPN
According to an email he sent out to everyone who pre-ordered the Baseball Prospect Book 2005, John Sickels will no longer be writing his Down on the Farm column for ESPN, effective Feb. 1st. Here is the full text of the email:
Last week, I learned that ESPN.com has decided to discontinue my Down on the Farm column. For budgetary reasons, they wish to consolidate their minor league coverage with Baseball America, leaving me without an on-line home. The last Down on the Farm column will be on February 1st, 2005.John's Down on the Farm column is one of the few reasons why I still visit ESPN. He has been a good friend of this site, and reading his past work was one of the reasons I decided to start up this weblog. If you are a fan of what John Sickels does, and what he adds to the baseball community, I ask you to email John at the email address listed on his website with your comments and suggestions.I started Down on the Farm in the spring of 1996, so an eight-year run is nothing to be ashamed of. I’m told that ESPN.com was happy with the quality of my work, but that they needed to “streamline” their on-line coverage.
So, where does this leave things for 2005?
At this point, I am uncertain. There are several options under consideration at this point. Ideally, I would like to bring Down on the Farm to a new, independent venue. It would be easy enough to set up my own website, an expansion of Johnsickels.com to include twice-weekly articles, etc. I could, theoretically, continue doing the mailbag and weekly prospect reports and posting them on my own website.
But the reality of finances means I have to have a way to make this pay. However, the glory days of the internet bubble are long-past. Internet advertising, by itself, would not be enough to make up the lost revenue from ESPN.
One option I am considering is setting up a Down on the Farm website, with a monthly subscription fee. The current John Sickels Baseball Newsletter would then be in addition to that. However, things like pricing and access issues for this new website have to be worked out.
I don’t want to abandon you guys, the ever-patient readers. But I need to make a living, too.
So my question for you is this: would you be willing to pay a small nominal fee for access (something on the order of $9.95 a month) to a Down on the Farm website, which would carry the same prospect articles and mailbags that I used to run on ESPN.com? Would you be willing to recommend such a site to your friends? If I did something like this, the existing John Sickels Baseball Newsletter would probably continue to exist as a higher-tier, “extra” product, perhaps with a reduced price from the current rate.
Basically, my goals are
1) to still do prospect analysis for a living
2) to remain accessible to as many readers as possible.At this point, I am open to suggestions on how to meet these goals.
Thanks for reading, and we’ll figure this out somehow.
John Sickels
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Swing and a miss
Signability of draft picks is a major concern for all organizations, especially with their upper round selections. The Braves track record of getting high school kids to sign over the past few drafts has been excellent, but there is always one that slips away, and Tyler Greene was that guy for the Braves in 2002.
Heading into the 2005 season, Baseball America catches up with the Preseason First Team All-American on his decision to turn down the Braves in 2002, and what the future holds for the guy who currently wears the #5 jersey - Nomar Garciaparra's old number for the Yellow Jackets:
"It was the toughest decision I had to make, mainly because I followed the Braves my whole life," Greene said. "But I felt like if I could start at Georgia Tech with the chance to finish a degree there, it would be a great backdoor if everything with baseball didn't work out.He's a guy who has the ability to learn, which is something you can't teach? That statement needs to head directly to the Scout Speak Hall of Fame."I have no regrets about the path I've taken, that's for sure. I'm a much better player now than when I was when I was 17 or 18. I really think that the college experience helps you in all kinds of ways, and that's not just limited to baseball. There is a gradual increase in terms of maturity and the overall learning experience if you go to school first."
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"For me, he's the premium package," said a scout with an American League organization. "You could say he struggled to be consistent, but there is an adjustment period that you have to expect to go through. He's an average runner and an above-average defender that can hit for average with some power potential. And he's one of those guys who has that intangible to learn, which is something you can't teach.""He was the best guy in the Cape," said a National League scout. "A lot of people questioned him turning down the second-round offer, but he's really done a lot to improve and make himself a potential first-round guy. He's got an easy, compact stroke, but the ball just jumps off his bat. There's a lot of raw power in there."
There is no doubt that Greene is a premium talent, and will likely be selected in the first round of the 2005 First Year Player Draft, making his decision to pass up the Braves original offer in 2002 look like a good one in retrospect.
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January 08, 2005
Final Winter Leauge Stats
With the regular season over and the playoffs underway across the four winter leagues, here is a final look at how the Braves contingent fared:
Venezuelan Winter League stats:
Gregor Blanco -- .250/.327/.420 (37-for-88), 2 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 8 BB, 28 SO
J.C. Boscan -- .340/.390/.549 (49-for-144), 10 2B, 3B, 6 HR, 31 RBI, 9 BB, 30 SO
Carlos Duran -- ..286/.318/.429 (6-for-21), HR, 4 RBI, BB, 3 SO (Caracas)
Carlos Duran -- .367/.387/.467 (11-for-30), 2B, 3B, 4 RBI, BB, 3 SO (La Guaira)
James Jurries -- .280/.357/.510 (28-for-100), 5 2B, 6 HR, 11 BB, 25 SO
Luis Hernandez -- .268/.317/.321 (30-for-112), 4 2B, 3B, 5 RBI, 8 BB, 22 SO, SB
Billy McCarthy -- .259/.333/.352 (14-for-54), 2 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 6 BB, 18 RBI
Jackson Melian -- .355/.402/.527 (33-for-93), 8 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 7 BB, 13 SO
Pete Orr -- .261/.307/.373 (37-for-142), 4 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 7 BB, 27 SO, 5 SB
Kevin Barry -- 0-0, 2 Saves, 6.00 ERA, 6 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 SO
Buddy Hernandez -- 0-2, 3.60 ERA, 20 IP, 17 H, 4 BB, 15 SO
Notes -- After weeks and weeks of scuffling, Blanco finally started to put the bat on the ball as the season came to a close. The K/BB Ratio isn't exactly pretty though. I've never been on the Carlos Duran bandwagon, but I will be interested to see what he can do in Mississippi next season. There may be hope for him yet.
Dominican Winter League stats:
Miguel Bernard -- .200/.256/.300 (8-for-40), 2 2B, 3B, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 8 SO
Wilson Betemit -- .209/.329/.358 (14-for-67), 2 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 12 BB, 23 SO
Rafael Furcal -- .326/.420/.465 (14-for-43), 4 2B, 3B, 8 RBI, 7 BB, 6 SO, 3 SB
Nick Green -- .253/.340/.446 (21-for-83), 5 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 11 BB, 23 SO, SB
Mike Hessman -- .236/.300/.509 (13-for-55), 5 HR, 11 RBI, 5 BB, 19 SO
Andy Marte -- .259/.369/.413 (37-for-143), 7 2B, 5 HR, 25 RBI, 25 BB, 40 SO, SB
Brayan Pena -- .323/.390/.394 (41-for-127), 9 2B, 6 RBI, 14 BB, 17 RBI, SB
Tony Pena Jr. -- .143/.200/.143 (2-for-14), BB, 6 SO
Roman Colon -- 0-1, 3.38 ERA, 13 1/3 IP, 12 H, 9 BB, 11 SO
Dan Curtis -- 3-2, 2.98 ERA, 42 1/3 IP, 40 H, 22 BB, 26 SO
Notes -- Brayan Pena finished up the season fifth in the league in hitting with a .323 average. Dan Curtis was was fifth in the league in ERA at 2.98, but his 22 walks were second most in the league. Go figure. Julio Franco showed up in time to go 3-for-4 with a homer in the regular season for Estrellas, then proceeded to launch two more bombs in their first playoff game, a 4-3 loss to Gigantes.
Mexican-Pacific League stats:
Isauro Pineda -- 2-1, 5.74 ERA, 26 2/3 IP, 27 H, 12 BB, 25 SO
Nicaraguan Professional League:
Gonzalo Lopez -- 3-3, 3.38 ERA, 40 IP, 27 H, 38 SO, 27 BB
Thanks go out to Gerald Hernandez in the comments section for the Gonzalo Lopez update. Gonzo's numbers look very strong ouside of the high number of walks. He only issued 17 free passes in 100 2/3 innings for Low-A Rome this past season.
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January 07, 2005
The Other Pena
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Tony Pena Jr. seems to get a lot of pub as a decent prospect in the Braves organization, but the name Brayan Pena isn't one you see appear as frequently. Following a winter league season which saw him hit .323/.390/.394 for Gigantes Del Cibao in the Dominican, Mark Bowman profiled the young backstop for MLB.com:
"He's shown flashes that he can play in the big leagues," Braves director of baseball operations Tyrone Brooks said of Pena. "He's always been very good at putting the ball in play and he runs well for a catcher."Pena's offensive value lies in his bating average and decent ability to get on base. The 23 year-old is a career .298 hitter in 1088 at-bats in the minor leagues, walking 82 times and fanning just 128. During that same span, he has only hit eight home runs - with a season high of three for Macon in 2002 - so his power potential is minimal.
While his ceiling seems to be as a major league backup, catchers have a different set of requirements in filling that extra spot on the bench at the highest level - they must play defense, and play it well. I was under the impression that Pena's defense was at least passable, if not improving, but I'm not sure how the organization feels about his skills behind the plate.
As far as his ranking within the organizational structure goes, Pena is clearly way down the charts from top catching prospects Brian McCann and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. He should get to show his stuff this spring down in Orlando before heading to Richmond to start the 2005 season. If he makes some noise with the bat - and some strides defensively - for the R-Braves, he could be a capable fill-in for the big club if the need arises.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 04:11 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
Scouting vs. Statistics
Alan Schwarz from Baseball America brought together four baseball insiders - two scouts and two statistical mavens - to discuss the recent scouting versus statistics argument, otherwise know as The Great Debate. Gary Hughes (Cubs Asst. GM) and Eddie Bane (Angels scouting director) represent the scouting side, with Gary Huckaby (Baseball Prospectus, Oakland A's) and Voros McCracken (Red Sox) toeing the statistics line. Schwarz moderates the roundtable discussion, tension ensues. Here are some of the choice tidbits:
ALAN SCHWARZ: Let’s segue into one of the things that started a lot of this controversy across the industry—”Moneyball,” Michael Lewis’s profile of the A’s and how Billy Beane runs his club. What effect did “Moneyball” have on baseball? Was it positive, in that it brought some of this analysis more to the mainstream, or negative, for how its unflattering depiction of most scouts polarized the two sides of the issue?This is a really long discussion between these five guys, and a really good one to boot. Do yourself a favor and head over to Baseball America to read the full article.EDDIE BANE: I think it’s had a very negative effect on the people that I think should be considered to be general managers in the major leagues. Gary Hughes and Scott Reid and Mike Radcliff and Ken Forsch and Gary Sutherland and Dick Tidrow, they are outstanding people. But because of the connotation that they’re not Moneyball people, we keep hearing about guys that are Ivy League graduates who are going to jump into general-manager jobs. They may be very qualified. But to think that Mike Radcliff and some of these other guys that have helped build the Minnesota Twins into what they are . . . It’s because they’re not quote-unquote Moneyball guys.
Lewis’ book directly affected human beings like John Poloni, who signed Tim Hudson. He’s the “fat scout” in the book. I resent that. I think John Poloni’s an outstanding scout. And without Tim Hudson (who was signed by Poloni), the Oakland A’s, they wouldn’t have written a book about them. I want to read a book by Pat Gillick. Or Brian Sabean. Or Terry Ryan—but we can’t get him to brag about himself. These guys won’t do it. When they write a book, I want to read it.
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ALAN SCHWARZ: Let’s talk tools for a moment. Are the five tools (hitting for average and power, running, fielding, arm) as relevant today as they’ve always been? Or given what we’ve learned over the past 10 or so years, should something like plate discipline be made the sixth tool?GARY HUGHES: I think the five tools are five physical tools. I don’t see where plate discipline becomes a tool.
VOROS McCRACKEN: I don’t know how much hitting for average is a physical tool, either. There are a lot more gifted athletes out there than Wade Boggs, who had the single ability to hit for a high average. Plate discipline is such a critical complement to the physical abilities. If you can take the physical abilities and combine them with plate discipline at a young enough age, I think you can work through whatever problems the hitter has at the plate, and he can become a good hitter. Everything that I’ve seen, from college baseball stats to minor league baseball stats, time and time again, walks and strikeout ratios, it just seems to keep coming up as very, very important.
GARY HUGHES: You’re absolutely right. It’s very important. I just don’t think it’s a tool with a capital T. And you don’t need computers and stat guys to see it. You show up at a game and the first thing you get is a stat sheet and you look at it. This has only been for the last 30 or 35 years that I’ve been doing this. But guess what? The guy with the best strikeout-to-walk ratio is usually the best player. Wow! This didn’t just happen in the past five years.
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ALAN SCHWARZ: Voros, what would make you dismiss a player?VOROS McCRACKEN: I never dismiss a player. There was a player, I don't remember who it was, who I thought would never hit a lick in the major leagues. And one day, he just one day up and started hitting. So I wouldn't dismiss anybody off the bat. But a 25-year-old guy in Double-A is a problem, OK? Not necessarily rule him out--a 25-year-old who hits the bejesus out of the ball in Double-A might be worth looking at as a bat off the bench. But if he's 25 and still in Double-A, what has he been doing from 20 to 24?
GARY HUGHES: But you can't have it both ways. You said you wouldn't give up on a guy.
VOROS McCRACKEN: I wouldn't. But I don't think he's much of a prospect. If you're going to hold on to prospects and invest a lot in them, they need to be someone who you expect to be playing every day or in the rotation or a top reliever.
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ALAN SCHWARZ: One thing that Eddie and Gary, you might not be aware of, is that a few years ago Voros came up with something called Defense Independent Pitching Stats, which . . .EDDIE BANE: Alan, you said, "You guys may not be aware." That's one of the things we're battling. We are aware. I read these guys' stuff all the time.
ALAN SCHWARZ: I said, "May not be aware." Gary, have you ever heard of DIPS?
GARY HUGHES: No.
ALAN SCHWARZ: OK then! (Laughter)
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January 05, 2005
Diamond Futures Top Pitching Prospects
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The tireless Michael Laureano from Diamond Futures has completed yet another prospect list, this time ranking the top pitching prospects in the minor leagues. Kyle Davies was the highest ranking Braves pitcher at #10, followed by Jake Stevens at #13, Gonzalo Lopez at #18, and Chuck James at #79 to round out the top 100.
Whether the organization is 100% behind him or not, Lopez is primed for a breakout year. Sent back down from High-A Myrtle Beach to Low-A Rome for the 2004 season due to injury/off-field problems, Gonzo posted an 8-5 record with a 3.67 ERA in 100 2/3 innings pitched. His 5.19 K/BB ratio (109 K, 21 BB) paced the Rome staff, topping both Jake Stevens (3.59) and Chuck James (3.25). He did miss a few weeks mid-season with a shoulder injury, but finished the year strong with six shutout innings in his final start in September. The 21 year-old should find that a return to the pitchers paradise known as Coastal Federal Field in 2005 will suit him just fine.
Look for the Diamond Futures Overall Top 100 Prospects list tomorrow before a well deserved break for Michael and company.
Update: Michael has done us a big favor and posted the Overall Top 100 a day early. As he stated in the comments below, this list is best looked at as more of a top 100 prospects of 2004 rather than a pure top 100 list which may take into account past performance, future projections, and things of that nature.
The Braves did land five players on the list: Andy Marte (#13), Kyle Davies (#22), Jake Stevens (#27), Gonzalo Lopez (#44), and Jeff Francoeur (#66).
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 06:06 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
January 01, 2005
Prospect List Roundup
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Mike Gullo rings in the new year right on schedule with The Minors First Top 100 Prospects, a list I usually enjoy very much, and this year is no exception. Here are the Braves prospects who made the cut, along with Mike's comments in quotations:
10. Andy Marte -- "I was expecting a little more from Marte in 2004… on the other hand, he battled ankle injuries and still was more than just solid. He looks like he's getting a little thick in the lower half, but is still a decent third baseman… despite recent talk about moving him to left field in Atlanta. I see his likelihood of future success very high."
28. Kyle Davies -- "He has the make-up and nearly the stuff to be a frontline pitcher. His changeup is dynamite and his fastball is in the slightly plus range. I'm thinking he'll make his debut with the Braves this summer and be up to stay in the rotation in 2006."
31. Jeff Francoeur -- "I had the pleasure of watching Francoeur in the 2003 Sally League playoffs. When you watch him play, you just get the feeling that he was born to play baseball. The lone area that still sticks out with him is his plate discipline. It really showed when he was (in hindsight) prematurely moved to Double A. If he can work beyond that, we could be looking at a star. I know most will rank him higher than this. Keep this in mind… me ranking him here means I'm very high on him, just not extremely high on him."
51. Brian McCann -- "What's not to like about a left-handed hitting catcher with a lot of power? He's fairly advanced at the plate and makes good contact, though his walk rate could be better. I'm looking for him to have even a better year this summer as he'll be in a more hitter friendly park. McCann is only average defensively and will make it because of his bat."
Former Braves prospects Jose Capellan and Dan Meyer came in at #33 and #39 respectively.
Michael Laureano at Diamond Futures wrapped up his top hitters list, with Andy Marte (#7), Jeff Francoeur (#39), Brian McCann (#69), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (#94), and Ryan Langerhans (#99) all cracking the top 100.
Over at BaseballNotebook.com, David Luciani (Hey! Luciani) chimes in with his Top 100 NL Hitting Prospects, and takes a different route than many of the other prospect watchers. Brian McCann tops the Braves contingent at #11, followed by Jarrod Saltalamacchia (#14), Jeff Francoeur (#15), Billy McCarthy (#36), Andy Marte (#46), Ryan Langerhans (#48), Martin Prado (#59), Matt Esquivel (#85), and Ardley Jansen (#97). It's nice to see Martin Prado getting some love, but I have a hard time grasping McCarthy ahead of Marte. Look for his Top 100 NL Pitching Prospects list very soon.
Update: The Top 100 NL Pitching Prospects list has been posted, and it is interesting to say the least. Jake Stevens tops the Braves contingent at #13, followed by Chuck James (#20), Blaine Boyer (#31), Glenn Tucker (#48), Matt Wright (#56), Kyle Davies (#80), and Sean White (#98). Former Braves prospect Jose Capellan topped the list at #1, with Dan Meyer at #12, and Alec Zumwalt at #96. I'd really like to see what formula spits out Glenn Tucker ahead of Kyle Davies.
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