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December 30, 2004
McCarthy, Langerhans prep for big spring
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With the vacancies in the Atlanta Braves outfield following the departures of J.D. Drew (via free agency), Charles Thomas, and Eli Marrero (both via trade), the organization may be looking internally to fill at least one, if not both, of the corner outfield spots.
Enter Billy McCarthy and Ryan Langerhans, two internal options who could be capable of holding down one of the corner spots, either alone or in a platoon situation (Langer's a lefty).
The South Jersey Courier-Post Online caught up with McCarthy this offseason and talked to him about getting ready for the most important spring training of his career:
"My feeling was to go and have a good spring training and make a good first impression on (manager) Bobby Cox, but that's changed a bit now. Now I have an opportunity to fight for a starting position. I'll have a bit different attitude, but I would have gone in looking to do my best either way."The Braves outfield situation for 2005 is a long way from being settled. I believe that John Schuerholz will sign or trade for a veteran outfielder to fill one of the holes (I have an uneasy Brian Jordan kind of feeling) , and the other will be manned by one or both of McCarthy/Langerhans."I have been on the Billy McCarthy bandwagon since he was signed as a sixth-round pick a couple years ago," Bill Ballew, a contributor to Baseball America.com, recently said on a Braves' web chat. "He's somewhat of a sleeper, but to me the guy is a winner, both on the field and off. He gives every ounce of energy to the game when he takes the diamond and the results of late have been impressive.
"If I were a GM, I would find a place for a guy like McCarthy on my 25-man roster."
Both are good options and should be able to provide acceptable performance in the majors, especially from a payroll standpoint. McCarthy has always hit well, but has been bothered by nagging injuries over the past few seasons. He was healthy in 2004 and showed it by hitting a combined .324/.397/.509 in 411 at-bats between Double-A and Triple-A. Langerhans has long been a top prospect, but didn't have that big breakout until this year in Triple-A, hitting .298/.397/.518 with 20 homers and 34 doubles in 456 at-bats. The only negative between the two, if you can even call it that, is that both will be 25 by the time next season starts, so we may already be getting a glimpse of their peak upside performance.
Rookies or not, I think both are ready to contribute at the major league level, and will be given every shot to earn their keep in what looks to be a very competitive spring training.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 04:29 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
December 28, 2004
All Quiet on the Baseball Front
It's the holiday lull this time of year in the baseball world, with very few trades and transactions of note taking place until the first week in January. That makes news especially light for minor league watchers like myself, so now is a good time to catch up on a few links.
Jeff Francoeur spoke to the Gwinnett Daily Post about the openings in the Braves outfield in 2005, and his upcoming spot in major league spring training:
The lofty status doesn’t guarantee any kind of spot for this season, although Francoeur said he’s heard that the Braves’ new AA club, Jackson (Miss.), might be where he starts 2005. But major league spring training is first and anything is possible.Both Francoeur and Andy Marte have an outside shot at making the big club out of spring training, but the most likely scenario is that they both head back to the minors for a little more seasoning in 2005.Recently back from a trip to the Bahamas, Francoeur has one more vacation to Florida on tap before he reports to spring training in late February. It will be his second spring with the major leaguers, but first as a true invitee. His first spring training in 2003 was a stipulation in his contract.
“It will be a lot different from two years ago, that was more part of my contract and just getting familiar,” Francoeur said. “This year is more about wanting to show them you’ve matured and that you’ve gotten better.”
Bryan Smith from Wait Til Next Year takes a look at the Braves organization following the trades of Jose Capellan and Dan Meyer, and likes what he sees:
Simply put, no organization can lose the likes of Jose Capellan and Dan Meyer, and not be hurt from a top prospect, or prospect depth perspective. On the other hand, no GM was more prepared to trade two fantastic prospects for two important Major League pieces than John Schuerholz. The truck has not been backed up because of these deals, it just merely has been dented. That’s because before these deals, Capellan and Meyer fell below two prospects, and immediately in front of a few more. Atlanta’s rotation will end up being a bit older than anticipated, but there are still arms that could be of some help soon.On a non-Braves related note, Rich Lederer from Rich's Weekend Baseball BEAT has been campaigning hard for Bert Blyleven's inclusion in the Baseball Hall of Fame. He takes up the topic with BBWAA member Jeff Peek in an excellent chat session. If it isn't already, Rich's site should be one of your daily reads. It's head and shoulders above the majority of baseball blogs out there.
Alan Schwarz "The Numbers Game" - Send me an email, or check your Hotmail account for the one I sent you. And thank you very much!
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 09:13 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
December 25, 2004
Winter Leagues Stat Update
The list has grown shorter over the past couple of weeks with the loss of Adam Stern in the Rule 5 Draft, the trades involving Jose Capellan, Juan Cruz, and Charles Thomas, and the departure of Napolean Calzado, who re-signed with Baltimore. Hessman was non-tendered, but I'll keep him on the list until he signs elsewhere.
I hope everyone is having a safe and happy holidays!
Venezuelan Winter League stats:
Gregor Blanco -- .225/.295/.413 (18-for-80), 2 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 6 BB, 26 SO
J.C. Boscan -- .340/.383/.546 (48-for-141), 9 2B, 3B, 6 HR, 31 RBI, 8 BB, 30 SO
Carlos Duran -- .300/.333/.450 (6-for-20), HR, 4 RBI, BB, 3 SO (Caracas)
Carlos Duran -- .367/.387/.467 (11-for-30), 2B, 3B, 4 RBI, BB, 3 SO (La Guaira)
James Jurries -- .280/.357/.510 (28-for-100), 5 2B, 6 HR, 11 BB, 25 SO
Luis Hernandez -- .276/.324/.316 (27-for-98), 4 2B, 5 RBI, 7 BB, 18 SO
Billy McCarthy -- .259/.333/.352 (14-for-54), 2 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 6 BB, 18 RBI
Jackson Melian -- .365/.396/.553 (31-for-85), 8 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 4 BB, 10 SO
Pete Orr -- .261/.307/.373 (37-for-142), 4 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 7 BB, 27 SO, 5 SB
Kevin Barry -- 0-0, 2 Saves, 6.00 ERA, 6 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 SO
Buddy Hernandez -- 0-2, 3.60 ERA, 20 IP, 17 H, 4 BB, 15 SO
Notes -- Blanco, Boscan, Duran, Hernandez, and Melian appear to be the only ones out of the above still playing. Boscan hit five homers in the past two weeks, raising his RBI total from 16 to 31 in the process.
Dominican Winter League stats:
Miguel Bernard -- .212 (7-for-33), 2B, 3B, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 6 SO
Wilson Betemit -- .209 (14-for-67), 2 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 12 BB, 23 SO
Rafael Furcal -- .343 (12-for-35), 3 2B, 3B, 7 RBI, 6 BB, 4 SO, 3 SB
Nick Green -- .253 (21-for-83), 5 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 11 BB, 23 SO, SB
Mike Hessman -- .216 (11-for-51), 5 HR, 11 RBI, 5 BB, 18 SO
Andy Marte -- .268 (37-for-138), 7 2B, 5 HR, 25 RBI, 24 BB, 40 SO
Brayan Pena -- .325 (40-for-123), 9 2B, 6 RBI, 14 BB, 17 SO
Tony Pena Jr. -- .100 (1-for-10), BB, 4 SO
Roman Colon -- 0-1, 2.84 ERA, 12 2/3 IP, 9 H, 9 BB, 9 SO
Dan Curtis -- 3-1, 2.97 ERA, 39 1/3 IP, 36 H, 22 BB, 24 SO
Notes -- No updates this time around for Bernard and Green, and only three at-bats for Tony Jr. over the last two weeks. Betemit needs to show a lot more in the spring if he wants to claim a bench spot. Colon and Curtis continue to pitch reasonably well, peripherals notwithstanding.
Mexican-Pacific League stats:
Isauro Pineda -- 2-1, 5.13 ERA, 26 1/3 IP, 27 H, 12 BB, 25 SO
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 04:08 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
December 23, 2004
Francoeur vs. Hermida
John Manuel takes up the debate in the Florida Marlins chat wrap over at Baseball America:
Q: Dave from Atlanta, Georgia asks:These guys have occupied space in the same sentence ever since they were drafted. Hermida has the better stick, Francoeur is the better defender and athlete. I haven't really dug too deep in the comparisions between the two, but I imagine this debate will only get more heated as these two top prospects get closer to the majors.
Hermida was the more highly acclaimed OF prospect in his draft ahead of the Braves Francouer, but Jeff has been the OF on the fast track while Hermida has slowly moved through the ranks, despite Florida being a notorious "fast track" type team. How long until Hermida reaches the bigs? And How does he stack up with the other top RF's in baseball: Delmon Young,Francouer,etc??A: John Manuel:
ATL representing for Hermida . . . Francoeur hasn't been moved much more aggressively than Hermida if you think about it; he has 76 at-bats in Double-A, otherwise they've been on the same track, High A this year and finishing up in the AFL. Hermida's bat is clearly better than Francoeur's, and I like Francoeur. Hermida makes more consistent contact, has more patience and is showing the same kind of game power. Francoeur has more raw power, but if Hermida's patience means his raw power will translate more into game power against better pitching. I'd put Hermida right up there in the group behind Young, who is the top OF in the minor leagues, ahead of the likes of Shin-Soo Choo and Ryan Sweeney.Q: Joshua Heines from Trenton, NJ asks:
How good can Jeremy Hermida be? Out of the top NL super OF prospects where does he rank compared to Jeff Francouer, Lastings Milledge, Ambiorix Concepcion, Felix Pie?A: John Manuel:
I'd take Milledge first out of all those OF prospects; the only minor league outfielder I like better than Milledge is Delmon Young. It depends on the day on the Hermida/Francouer question, and as I've said before, I like Hermida's bat better right now, but Francoeur is more athletic and has more raw power. Pie would be fourth. Concepcion doesn't belong in this discussion.
Transactions -- I missed this a couple of days ago, but Napoleon Calzado has returned to Baltimore.
Site News -- Minor Details has been added back to the sidebar. Toby Boyce has taken over the reins from Jeremy Deloney, who moved on to Baseball HQ back in September.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 08:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
The Master
I know it. You know it. Seemingly other GM's know it. If you are offered pitching prospects in a trade from the Atlanta Braves, you should get up and walk out of the room. But time and time again, Braves GM John Schuerholz finds a way to trade the right pitchers at the right time, benefiting the club both now, and down the line. Alan Schwarz of Baseball America takes a look at this phenomenon in his latest article (subscriber only):
The buzz rumbled through the otherwise somnolent Marriott lobby: Atlanta had just acquired closer Dan Kolb from the Brewers, but to do so gave up its top pitching prospect, Jose Capellan. The Braves gave up their best young arm?You are going to have to subscribe to BA to read the rest of the article, or pick it up off the magazine rack, but it is a good one. I hate to lose top prospects like Jose Capellan and Dan Meyer (especially Meyer), but the trades greatly improved our major league club, without decimating our depth in the minor leagues, a task that other teams often find daunting.I couldn't help but ask a different question: Another general manager took yet another pitching prospect from John Schuerholz?
This is not to suggest that Mr. Schuerholz, the most accomplished club executive of this era and perhaps any other, knowingly trades other clubs ticking time bombs. But having worked at Baseball America for 14 years, the names are easy to rattle off:
Yorkis Perez. Nate Minchey. Donnie Elliott. Chris Seelbach. Rob Bell. Micah Bowie. Jason Shiell. Jimmy Osting. Luis Rivera.
Every single one of them was a well-regarded Braves pitching prospect, every one of them was traded by Schuerholz at the height of his value, and every one of them has either washed out or failed to reach his potential.
But not John Schuerholz. In JS We Trust.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 03:44 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
December 22, 2004
The **No Pepper** Top 10 Albums of 2004
| 1. The Magnetic Fields - I |
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| Another excellent job by Stephen Merritt and company. Two of my most played songs of the year - "I Don't Believe You" and "I Thought You Were My Boyfriend" - came from this album. |
| 2. Les Savy Fav - Inches |
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| I stumbled on these guys on a recommendation this summer and have been blown away ever since. |
| 3. Iron & Wine - Our Endless Numbered Days |
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| Sam Beam rode shotgun with me on several road trips this past year. It never gets old. |
| 4. Ted Leo & The Pharmacists - Shake The Sheets |
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| Another blow out by Ted and the Rx. His previous albums "The Tyranny Of Distance" and "Hearts Of Oak" are absolute must-owns. |
| 5. Elliott Smith - From a Basement On The Hill |
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| Posthumous release by one of the greatest singer/songwriters of my generation. |
| 6. Arcade Fire - Funeral |
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| An album that actually lived up to the hype. "Neighborhood #3" and "Rebellion (Lies)" really get me going in the morning. |
| 7. Morrissey - You Are The Quarry |
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| I am such a Morrissey whore that I bought both the regular CD and the expanded CD/DVD release. |
| 8. PJ Harvey - Uh Huh Her |
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| Polly Jean - Say it ain't so! |
| 9. Interpol - Antics |
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| Not as good as "Turn On The Bright Lights" but an excellent sophomore effort nonetheless. |
| 10. Loretta Lynn - Van Lear Rose |
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| When I told my wife I just bought a Loretta Lynn CD she said "You're joking, right"? One of the best surprises of the year. |
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 07:58 PM | Comments (6) | TrackBack
December 21, 2004
BA Top 10 Braves Prospects
Baseball America has published the Atlanta Braves Top Ten Prospects list, with Jeff Francoeur taking the top spot in a minor upset over last year's number one Andy Marte. The full list:
1. Jeff Francoeur, of
2. Andy Marte, 3b
3. Brian McCann, c
4. Kyle Davies, rhp
5. Anthony Lerew, rhp
6. Jake Stevens, lhp
7. Luis Hernandez, ss
8. Kelly Johnson, of
9. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, c
10. Blaine Boyer, rhp
For many organizations, the loss of two top pitching prospects in the offseason - such as Jose Capellan and Dan Meyer - would wreak havoc on the depth of their farm system, but not the Atlanta Braves. The system is loaded, and give the Braves the flexibility to bring in the likes of Tim Hudson:
Even after those deals, the Braves still have plenty of high-end talent. They believe they haven't had such a deep pool of position prospects since the early 1990s. Pitching, as always, remains a strength from top to bottom. The organization’s depth is a testament to both exhaustive scouting and structured coaching and instruction that is taught in a consistent manner from the bottom of the farm system up to the major league level.The only real surprise for me on the BA list is the inclusion of Blaine Boyer in the Top 10, although with another solid season like 2004, he may be right up there. Luis Hernandez may surprise others as well, but the hype just keeps growing and growing on this kid, and with his tools based performance, it's no surprise where he is ranked. Jarrod Saltalamacchia also earned his spot on the list with a solid season in Rome.
The scouting reports for all of the players are subscriber only, but here are a few tidbits:
1. Jeff Francoeur -- Francoeur is one of the purest five-tool players in the minor leagues. Scouts rave about the way he consistently gets the barrel of the bat on the ball. He uses his hands well in his swing and generates tremendous bat speed, which combined with his natural power should enable him to hit 30-plus home runs annually in the majors.Bill Ballew will be taking your Braves questions in a live chat at Baseball America today at 2 p.m. ET.3. Brian McCann -- McCann has a sweet lefthanded swing and as much raw power as anyone in the organization. He employs a disciplined approach at the plate and makes solid contact. Drafted primarily for his bat, he has dedicated himself to improving behind the plate and was named the CL's best defensive catcher. He threw out 30 percent of basestealers with his strong, accurate arm and quick release.
7. Luis Hernandez -- No one made greater strides in the Braves system in 2004 than Hernandez. The youngest player in the Carolina League, he boosted his batting average 41 points from the previous season while continuing to shine on defense. At least one opposing manager thought he had as bright a future as teammates Jeff Francoeur and Brian McCann.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 07:51 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
December 18, 2004
Site Updates
The Organizational Depth Chart has been updated following the Hudson trade. Do keep in mind that the minor league assignments for 2005 most likely will not be updated until right before the season starts.
Also, thanks in great part to some excellent legwork by 50PoundHead, the 2004 Draft Board was updated with all of the schools the unsigned players are attending, and whether or not the Braves retain signing rights for the player. The school names are hyperlinked to their respective baseball pages to make keeping track of the draft-and-follows a bit easier next spring. Please take a look at it and let me know if there are any problems with the readability of the list.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 08:32 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
December 17, 2004
Huh?
Via Rotoworld:
Braves GM John Schuerholz indicated yesterday that he believes Jeff Francoeur is closer to the majors than Andy Marte.Schuerholz has been fantastic this offseason in my opinion, but this little quote makes no sense to me. Francoeur may be ready defensively for the majors, but his bat needs another year of fine tuning in the minors before that happens. It just so happens that the opportunity is there in both left and right field for Jeff, as opposed to Marte being blocked at third.
Schuerholz has no intention of moving Chipper Jones back to the outfield to make room for Marte. Instead, he's talking about Marte as a possible left fielder in 2006. Francoeur, who hit just .197/.197/.342 in 76 at-bats after moving up to Double-A last season, might get a chance to win a job next spring if the Braves don't bring in quality regulars. He's still likely to spend 2005 in the minors.
I don't think Marte is 100% ready right now either, but all things being equal, Marte would have a greater chance of success in the bigs if both were on the 2005 opening day roster.
Clarification: Thanks to the fine readers of this site for pointing me to the full comments by Schuerholz:
He did say, however, that top prospect Jeff Francoeur will get a look in spring training.How Rotoworld came up with their tidbit out of that quote, I'm not sure. My apologies to JS."Francouer is real close to the major leagues," Schuerholz said. "We're going to give Jeff a chance to come to spring training and show us what he's got. He might excite a lot of people."
In addition to Francoeur, Schuerholz said that highly rated Andy Marte, considered the top third base prospect in the minors, will figure in the outfield mix by 2006.
"He's never played the outfield [before] in his life, but he can hit," Schuerholz said.
Meanwhile, over at ESPN, John Sickels uses the words Dan Meyer and Rookie of the Year in the same sentence.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 04:18 PM | Comments (7) | TrackBack
December 16, 2004
Hudson a Brave
The Atlanta Braves finally completed the trade to bring Tim Hudson over from the A's, in return for OF Charles Thomas, RHP Juan Cruz, and minor league LHP Dan Meyer.
First thought - fantastic deal for the Braves! Now, get working on that extension!
Eli Marrero is gone too, to the Kansas City Royals for reliever Jorge Vazquez. Sorry Mac, I'm not too much help on this one, nor do I really understand it. Something else must be coming down the pipe. Hampton for Sosa maybe? Boy, I really don't like Sosa, but I'd do that deal to get out from Hampton's contract.
By the way, after all of these trades this offseason, the pitching pipeline is still full. Kyle Davies should be ready no later than 2006, with Anthony Lerew and Jake Stevens hopefully soon thereafter. Plus, none of our hitters were touched - Andy Marte, Jeff Francoeur, Brian McCann, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, etc. It's a good day to be a Braves fan!
I'm getting peppered with searches for Braves prospects lists and scouting reports, so here is the link to the 2004 No Pepper Top 50 Prospects list, where I ranked Dan Meyer at #4:
4. Dan Meyer, lhp
Meyer flaunted his impressive control for both Double-A Greenville and Triple-A Richmond in 2004. Between the two stops, he was 9-6 with a 2.50 ERA, striking out 146 and walking just 37 for nearly a 4/1 K/BB ratio. The college product is best known for his poise and tenacity on the mound, bringing a low-90's fastball, an excellent slider, and an ever improving changeup. I had him ahead of Capellan in my personal rankings until the last month of the season, and he could very well have the better major league career of the two. Meyer should have every opportunity to make the big club out of spring training in 2005.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 05:57 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Updated Draft Pick Compensation
With the Yankees signing of Carl Pavano, the Braves have been knocked down a bit in the draft order for the 2005 First Year Player Draft. The Braves still hold their original 27th pick in the first round, but the Marlins now own the Yankees 29th pick in the first round as compensation for losing Pavano. This moves the Braves compensation picks for losing Jaret Wright to the 39th overall pick (Supplemental First Round) and the 77th overall pick (Second Round).
Jim Callis has been keeping track of all the compensation picks over at Baseball America.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 07:06 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
December 15, 2004
Stern Rule 5 Article
There was a nice article in The London (Ont.) Free Press about native son Adam Stern getting his shot with the Red Sox via the Rule 5 Draft:
Stern was at workout when he learned he was heading to another team.I hope like hell Adam makes the Red Sox out of spring training and sticks with the team, but for selfish reasons, I wouldn't be sad if he found his way back to the Braves organization. Click on the link above for the full article."I thought the draft would be over so I went to check the phone and there were five messages there," Stern said.
Included in the messages was one from the Braves.
"They told me they were happy for me personally, that this was going to be a good opportunity for me but that they were disappointed because they didn't want to lose me," Stern said.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 06:13 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
December 14, 2004
Winter Meeting Wrap-Up
Alec Zumwalt has been named as the PTBNL in the Kolb/Capellan trade. Zumwalt had an excellent 2003 season between High-A Myrtle Beach and Double-A Greenville, good enough in fact to get him selected in the 2003 Rule 5 draft by Tampa Bay. He didn't make it through spring training with the D-Rays, and returned to the Braves in March of 2004. This past season didn't go quite as well for Alec, posting a 5.09 ERA in 76 relief innings for Greenville. Hopefully he will get back on the right track with the Brewers organization.
MinorLeagueBaseball.com has posted the full results of yesterday's Rule 5 Draft, where the only Braves drafted were Adam Stern by the Red Sox in the Major League phase, and Aaron Herr in the Triple-A phase. I fully expect Stern to return to the Braves organization at some point prior to the 2005 season getting underway. I would actually be more pleased if he stuck with Boston in the majors, but I just don't see it happening with the type of bench they normally carry. Thanks to everyone in the comments section for the Zumwalt and Rule 5 links.
John Sickels recaps the Major League phase, including comments on former Braves prospect LHP Matt Merricks.
Damon Hollins has signed a minor league deal with the Devil Rays.
The Organizational Depth Chart has been updated with all of the roster moves from the last week, but it is still in a bit of disarray.
I have changed the comments configuration on this website now that some comment spam blocking features have been added to Movable Type. I am no longer moderating comments from unregistered users, so your comments should now show up immediately on the site, instead of waiting for me to go push a button. Hopefully this will work out well.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 08:59 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
December 13, 2004
Rule 5 Draft Update
Adam Stern was the only Braves player selected in the Major League portion of the Rule 5 Draft, going to the Boston Red Sox with the 11th pick out of 12 total. Aaron Herr was selected by the Seattle Mariners in the Triple-A phase, where an amazing 51 players were chosen (the full list isn't available yet).
I honestly didn't think Stern would be drafted, but maybe that's because he was the one I didn't want to see go. He definitely has the talent to fill the utility outfielder role with the Red Sox, but the Sox don't seem like a great fit for Stern due to a normally deep bench. Whether Adam sticks with the Sox or returns to the Braves I'll be happy for him and wish him all the success in the world.
For Red Sox fans coming here in search of information on Stern, I had him as the #12 prospect in the organization in my postseason 2004 Top 50 List:
12. Adam Stern, of
Not quite out of nowhere, but pretty darn close, Stern put up a very impressive year for Double-A Greenville. The former 3rd round pick (2001) out of the University of Nebraska battled back from an injury-plagued 2003 campaign to hit .322/.378/.480 in 394 at-bats for the G-Braves, including eight homers, 26 doubles, six triples, and 27 stolen bases (10 CS). He also spent most of August participating in the Olympics for Team Canada. At 24, he is a touch old to be considered a top prospect at Double-A, but considering this is only his second professional season with more than 150 AB's, he is moving along just fine.
By the way, can anyone get in touch with Keith Lockhart? Buddy Hernandez really needs to get his hands on those pictures he had all those years with the Braves. Buddy just can't seem to catch a break.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 01:48 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
Rule 5 Draft Today
The Rule 5 Draft is set to take place today at the Winter Meetings in Anaheim, California. I'm not going to be around the rest of the day, but I will have a full recap tomorrow on all of the happenings. I'm sure the folks on the message board will be keeping track, as well as Baseball America and MLB.com, so you shouldn't be lacking for coverage.
I don't expect many Braves players to be selected in the draft. I thought Buddy Hernandez had the best shot at being selected, and now with the Kolb/Capellan trade in the books, he is likely gone whether he is drafted or not. Out of the rest of the unprotected players, James Jurries may be selected, as well as Kevin Barry. Besides those three, I don't see any players available in the organization that would tempt a major league club to add them to their 25-man roster. I wouldn't be shocked if no one was drafted from the Braves at all, much less stick with the team that chose them. What would shock me is if the Braves drafted a player of their own, which is highly unlikely. (I'm not taking the Minor League portion of the draft into account in any of this, only the Major League part.)
And finally, I know I have rallied behind this little pet peeve of mine before, but it is in the rule book as the "Rule 5" draft - there is no such entity as the "Rule V" draft. But for some reason that misconception persists, and I would just like to spread the word.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 09:37 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
December 12, 2004
Say it ain't so
From Baseball America:
In a move that will allow them to move John Smoltz back into their rotation, the Braves acquired Dan Kolb from the Brewers in exchange for righthander Jose Capellan and a player to be named later. That player is widely believed to be another top pitching prospect, lefthander Dan Meyer.I generally trust and have faith in what Baseball America says, but this can't be true. If the PTBNL is in fact Meyer, then there shouldn't be a holdup in releasing his name. And he definitely isn't a mid-level prospect, a term that has been bandied about in several of the trade reports.
Update: BA must have felt the wrath of the Braves fans, because it ain't so anymore. The article has been updated with Buddy Hernandez being the PTBNL, which makes worlds more sense. If there is a guy in our system who deserves a shot more than Buddy, I'd like to know who it is. It's clear he wasn't going to get it in Atlanta, so hopefully he will with Milwaukee.
(Hat tip to Snellville Jones and Bell Curve in the comments for pointing me to the correction.)
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 04:20 PM | Comments (10) | TrackBack
December 11, 2004
Capellan - Gone
From Ken Rosenthal at The Sporting News:
The Milwaukee Brewers have traded All-Star closer Dan Kolb to the Braves for Jose Capellan, the team's top pitching prospect, the Sporting News has learned.I can't say I'm surprised at all that we traded Jose Capellan this offseason, but I thought he could land us a bigger fish than Dan Kolb - like maybe a right fielder?.The move indicates that John Smoltz will make the switch from the bullpen to the starting rotation.
Kolb made the NL All-Star team last season, compiling a 2.98 earned run average in 64 appearances and setting the Brewers' franchise record with 39 saves. Kolb was eligible for salary arbitration after making $1.5 million in 2004.
Capellan, a 6-foot-3, 170-pound right hander, appeared in three games for the Braves in 2004, going 0-1 with 11.25 ERA in eight innings pitched. At three different minor league levels, Capellan went 14-4 with 2.32 ERA and 152 strikeouts over 139 2/3 innings.
Amazingly enough, I'm not THAT disappointed in this deal. I would have liked to have seen what Cappy could have done in a Braves uniform, and I'm certainly no big fan of Kolb, but it makes sense in the grand scheme of putting Smoltz back into the rotation. I haven't been a supporter of that move, but if that's the way this is going to shake out, then so be it. We already have the money committed to Smoltz, so making this trade seems to be fiscally and organizationally responsible.
Such is the state of the Atlanta Braves right now.
Update: MLB.com has a blurb about a PTBNL being included with Capellan, but the Milwaukee JS makes no mention of it. I think Capellan on his own is more than enough.
Update #2: The AJC has the PTBNL coming our way - a "marginal minor-league prospect". That's more like it I guess, although I'm sure he'll be no great shakes.
Update #3: According to the Braves team website, this paves the way for the restructuring of Smoltz's contract in the coming weeks, giving the Braves additional financial flexibility for this season, and allowing Smoltz to retire as a Brave:
Smoltz's current contract, which is worth $12 million, calls for him to receive $100,000 for each start that he makes. A new multiyear deal that would enable the veteran right-hander an opportunity to retire in Atlanta will likely be constructed next week.Update #4: The "mid-level prospect" will go from the Braves to the Brewers, and should be named by the end of next week. No guess as to who it is just yet.As long as the new deal, which will likely be for three years, supersedes the $12 million that Smoltz is owed this year, the Players' Association will not have a problem with the right-hander taking a slight pay cut for the 2005 season.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 07:31 PM | Comments (2) | TrackBack
Winter Leagues Stat Update
Venezuelan Winter League stats:
Gregor Blanco -- .200/.273/.400 (14-for-70), 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 25 SO, 2 SB
J.C. Boscan -- ..345/.393/.436 (38-for-110), 7 2B, HR, 16 RBI, 7 BB, 21 SO
Carlos Duran -- .357/.357/.571 (5-for-14), HR, 4 RBI, 3 SO (Caracas)
Carlos Duran -- .367/.387/.467 (11-for-30), 2B, 3B, 4 RBI, BB, 3 SO (La Guaira)
James Jurries -- .280/.357/.510 (28-for-100), 5 2B, 6 HR, 11 BB, 25 SO
Luis Hernandez -- .277/.333/.319 (13-for-47), 2 2B, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 8 SO, SB
Billy McCarthy -- .259/.333/.352 (14-for-54), 2 2B, HR, 6 RBI, 6 BB, 18 RBI
Jackson Melian -- ..326/.356/.488 (14-for-43), 4 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 5 SO, 2 SB
Pete Orr -- .261/.307/.373 (37-for-142), 4 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 7 BB, 27 SO, 5 SB
Kevin Barry -- 0-0, 2 Saves, 6.00 ERA, 6 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 SO
Buddy Hernandez -- 0-2, 3.60 ERA, 20 IP, 17 H, 4 BB, 15 SO
Notes -- Orr, Barry, and Hernandez had no updates this time around, so they may be gone. Juan Velandia was removed from my list now that he has signed with the Pirates organization. Aside from Blanco, everyone else seems to be having a decent season.
Dominican Winter League stats:
Miguel Bernard -- .212 (7-for-33), 2B, 3B, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 6 SO
Wilson Betemit -- .212 (14-for-66), 2 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 12 BB, 23 SO
Napoleon Calzado -- .272 (28-for-103), 2 2B, 3B, HR, 7 RBI, 6 BB, 12 SO, 6 SB
Rafael Furcal -- .286 (2-for-7), 2 BB, SO, SB
Nick Green -- .253 (21-for-83), 5 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 11 BB, 23 SO, SB
Mike Hessman -- .240 (6-for-25), 3 HR, 6 RBI, BB, 7 SO
Andy Marte -- .280 (32-for-114), 6 2B, 5 HR, 24 RBI, 18 BB, 34 SO, SB
Brayan Pena -- .337 (34-for-101), 7 2B, 5 RBI, 10 BB, 12 SO, SB
Tony Pena Jr. -- .143 (1-for-7), 2 SO
Adam Stern -- .278 (15-for-54), 5 2B, 3B, 5 RBI, 3 BB, 10 SO, 4 SB
Charles Thomas -- .217 (5-for-23), 2 2B, RBI, BB, 6 SO, 2 SB
Jose Capellan -- 0-2, 4.30 ERA, 23 IP, 24 H, 7 BB, 19 SO
Roman Colon -- 0-1, 4.91 ERA, 7 1/3 IP, 9 H, 7 BB, 7 SO
Juan Cruz -- 0-0, 2.84 ERA, 6 1/3 IP, 7 H, 4 BB, 7 SO
Dan Curtis -- 2-1, 3.41 ERA, 34 1/3 IP, 34 H, 20 BB, 18 SO
Notes -- Marte had a little run since the last update, improving his AVG from .250 to .281. He is tied for the league lead in homers with five, and is second in RBI with 24. Brayan Pena is third in the league in hitting with a .337 AVG, and fifth in the league in OBP at .396. Rafael Furcal, aka "El Borracho" (The Drunkard) made his debut with Escogido.
Mexican-Pacific League stats:
Isauro Pineda -- 2-1, 5.33 ERA, 25 1/3 IP, 26 H, 12 BB, 24 SO
Notes -- No change since the last update for Pineda.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 04:16 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
December 10, 2004
Compensation Picks
With the flurry of free agent signings, Jim Callis of Baseball America has updated the compensation picks list in his latest Ask BA mailbag. Aside from their original 27th pick in the first round, the Braves will receive the Yankees first round pick (29th), and also a supplemental first round pick (36th) for signing of Jaret Wright.
For the record, the last six players selected by the Braves with a compensation pick were Luis Atilano, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, JoJo Reyes, and Jake Stevens in 2003, and Dan Meyer and Tyler Greene in 2002. Outside of Greene, who didn't sign and went to Georgia Tech, I'd say that is a pretty good haul by the Braves.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 09:44 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
December 08, 2004
Transactions
From the latest Baseball America transaction log, the Braves have re-signed LHP Sam McConnell, and also inked LHP Brian O'Connor and RHP Chris Mears.
O'Connor spent 2003 in the Tampa organization, but I can't find any record of him playing in 2004. Prior to that, he spent eight years as a Pirates farmhand. He has only posted an ERA under 5.00 once since 2000, so he is roster filler at best, probably in Richmond, but maybe even Mississippi. (P.S. - Am I the only one who has to sing the little "Mis-sis-sippi" song every time that word is typed?)
Mears has at least showed some semblance of talent in his seven year minor league career, even appearing in 29 games with the dreadful 2003 Detroit Tigers. He posted an ERA under 4.00 in his last three minor league stops, so he could be decent out of the bullpen in Richmond, but at 27 next season, don't expect too much.
RHP Sung Jung has also been reinstated from the inactive list, so I assume his visa problems from last year are settled.
Update -- Thanks to a keen-eyed 50PoundHead, Jorge Velandia was signed by the Pirates, likely handing the SS position in Richmond to Tony Pena Jr. I'm certainly anxious to see how he handles it.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 08:25 AM | Comments (5) | TrackBack
December 07, 2004
Marte vs. Cabrera
I posted this in response to a question on the message board about how Andy Marte and Miguel Cabrera's minor league numbers compared, so I thought I would add it here for posterity's sake.
Age 18 season:
Cabrera (2001 Low-A Kane) .268/.382 SLG, 422 AB, 19 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 37 BB, 76 SO
Marte (2002 Low-A Macon) .281/.339/.492, 488 AB, 32 2B, 4 3B, 21 HR, 41 BB, 114 SO
Park Factors -- 2001 Kane County .999, 2002 Macon 1.001
Age 19 season:
Cabrera (2002 High-A Jupiter) .274/.333/.421, 489 AB, 43 2B, 3B, 9 HR, 38 BB, 85 SO
Marte (2003 High-A M. Beach) .285/.372/.469, 463 AB, 35 2B, 3B, 16 HR, 67 BB, 109 SO
Park Factors -- 2002 Jupiter .940, 2003 Myrtle Beach .925
Age 20 Season:
Cabrera (2003 AA Carolina) .365/.429/.609, 266 AB, 29 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 31 BB, 49 SO
Cabrera (2003 Florida Marlins) .268/.325/.468, 314 AB, 21 2B, 3 3B, 12 HR, 25 BB, 84 SO
Marte (2004 AA Greenville) .269/.364/.525, 387 AB, 28 2B, 3B, 23 HR, 58 BB, 105 SO
Park Factors -- 2003 Carolina 1.009, 2004 Greenville I don't have yet, but it was 1.005 in 2003.
Age 21 Season:
Cabrera (2004 Florida Marlins) .294/.366/.512, 603 AB, 31 2B, 3B, 33 HR, 68 BB, 148 SO
Marte (2005 - ???)
Park Factors -- 2004 Florida .955
What do I take from this?
1. Both of these guys are damn good.
2. The numbers justify the comparisons - they both performed at similar levels at the same ages. Cabrera may hit for a slightly higher average, but Marte seems to draw walks at a better rate, and may have more long term power potential. I say that, and then you look at Cabrera's Most Similar By Age comparison at Baseball-Reference, and #1 on the list is none other than Hank Aaron. Wow.
3. Cabrera's season for the Marlins in 2004 was ridiculously good for anyone, much less a 21 year old. The rest of his most similar list through the age of 21 contains Mickey Mantle at #5 and Andruw Jones at #9.
4. Hopefully Marte will take the same path this upcoming season that Cabrera did in 2003, although I imagine there is a chance Marte will start 2005 in Richmond. I'd prefer Mississippi.
5. The most glaring difference between the two is that Cabrera has translated his potential into major league success. The same is not guaranteed of Marte, but the signs are positive at this point.
(Stats from The Baseball Cube, Park Factors from the Baseball Prospectus annuals.)
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 12:26 PM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
December 06, 2004
SportsBlurb.com Braves Top 10 Prospects
Seth Trachtman runs down the Braves Top 10 Prospects in his latest Farm Report for SportsBlurb.com (Thanks Mark!), and I have to say it is a very solid list. A quick rundown, with the No Pepper rankings in parentheses:
1. Andy Marte (1)
2. Dan Meyer (4)
3. Jeff Francoeur (2)
4. Jose Capellan (3)
5. Kyle Davies (5)
6. Brian McCann (6)
7. Macay McBride (15)
8. Jake Stevens (7)
9. Chuck James (10)
10. Anthony Lerew (8)
There are similarities up and down the board between Seth's list and mine, with the only player more than a couple of ticks off being Macay McBride. McBride did run into some trouble this year in Double-A, but he is still a young, hard-throwing lefty. If we are fortunate enough to mold him into a Mike Remlinger/Stanton type of reliever, I will be extremely pleased, and I think there is a fair possibility that will happen.
Seth adds comments on each player that are pretty spot-on, with nitpicks that would only come from a guy like me. For example, Chuck James just turned 23 in November, so he was in his age 22 season in Rome in 2004. That's still old for the league, but he has the opportunity to move quickly in 2005 if he gets off to a hot start.
Be sure to head over to SportsBlurb to read the full commentary for each player.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 07:02 AM | Comments (1) | TrackBack
December 05, 2004
King Leo
You should have already read this by now, but in case you haven't, head over to Sabernomics to learn just How Good is Leo Mazzone? Another great study by J.C., and well worth your time.
In Rotoworld news, this scares the beejesus out of me:
Mike Hessman went 3-for-5 with a home run and four RBI yesterday in his debut for Cibao of the Dominican Winter League.I'm sorry, but there is no way Hessman should be part of a platoon at first base with LaRoche. If Franco isn't re-signed, why not just give Adam the gig full time? On a personal note, I gave up a homer to Hessman in my MVP Baseball season this week, and I nearly cried.
Hessman hit .130 in 69 AB for the Braves last year and wasn't one of the team's September callups, but since he still occupies a 40-man roster spot, he must have some place in the team's plans. He could take over as Adam LaRoche's platoon partner if Julio Franco isn't re-signed.
Diamond Futures has wrapped up their position prospect rankings with the Outfielders, and Jeff Francoeur led the way for the Braves at #16. Following Jeff, Ryan Langerhans was at #37, Gregor Blanco at #44, Kelly Johnson at #53, and Matt Esquivel at #89. Andy Marte landed in the third spot in the Third Base rankings, with Wilson Betemit coming in at #22. Carlos Guzman snuck in at #29 in the First Base rankings. The Triple-A rankings are scheduled to be posted today.
MLB.com's generic team coverage is usually passable, but I just had to laugh when Braves writer Mark Bowman suggested that Marcus Giles may be expendable due to the play of Nick Green and Pete Orr. Give me a break. On the good side of the ledger, Jonathan Mayo did a nice job with the Braves Organizational Recap.
John Manuel discusses the flame throwing Escogido pitching staff - home of Jose Capellan and Roman Colon - in his latest Winter League Notebook:
“Every big Latin arm seems to pitch for Escogido,” said one scout with an American League organization, just back from a trip to the Dominican. “I think I saw seven guys throw 95 for that team in a span of about two days.“Capellan was the most impressive. His arm action is outstanding, his velocity is easy, and while his fastball is a little straight, it’s 96 and he puts it where he wants to.”
Have you voted today?
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 09:28 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
December 03, 2004
Vote Or Die
My BravesBeat.com label mate Mac from Braves Journal has been nominated in the Best Sports Weblog category of the 2004 Weblog Awards. Please Click Here and place your vote for Braves Journal. You can vote once every 24 hours if you are so inclined, so get to it!
P.S. - If you missed his Anna Benson article, you should head over for a good laugh. Plus, me just typing the words "Anna Benson" should be good for a few additional Google hits. :)
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 04:44 PM | Comments (4) | TrackBack
BP Dominican Winter League Report
Carlos Lugo has posted his midseason DWL report over at Baseball Prospectus. It is a premium article, so just a few clips on the Braves players:
Jose Capellan had a rough outing Monday against the Estrellas in San Pedro de Macoris. Capellan came into the game with just six hits and two walks allowed in 12 innings, and a 0.75 ERA. But that night the prospect's secondary pitches were not effective, his fastball a couple of miles slower and poorly located. The result was seven runs in an inning and a third, with seven hits allowed. An interesting note on Capellan is that he seems much more bigger than last winter, and bigger than the 6'3", 170 lbs. he's listed at the Register. Capellan must weigh around 200 lbs.I'm not really thrilled with the report on Capellan's secondary offerings - that's what plagued him during his cup of coffee in September. Plus, he looked bigger than 200 lbs. at that time anyway. Watching him on TV, I thought he looked like he was at least 220, if not more.Dodgers infielder Brian Myrow is leading the league in walks with 26 while playing first base for Escogido. Myrow's OBP is .423; the #2 man in walks is Azucareros' Andy Marte with 17
Braves catcher Brayan Peña is second in the league in batting average with .340. He has no home runs and just seven doubles in 94 at-bats
Outfielder Adam Stern and infielder Nick Green left the Cibao Giants after their contracts expired.
"Just" seven doubles in 94 at-bats for Pena? That would give him 37 in 500 at-bats, only one behind last years major league lead of 38 for catchers by Cleveland's Victor Martinez. Johnny Estrada was second with 36. Not that I'm saying you can translate that, but that is a good doubles rate for a catcher.
No big thing for Stern and Green to be leaving after their contracts are up. Many of the contracts are only for one month to begin with. I'm sure more regulars arrived home to play, which in turn limited their playing time.
The article also mentioned that Charles Thomas and Mike Hessman have arrived in the Dominican, and will be joining the Giants roster soon.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 08:03 AM | Comments (3) | TrackBack
December 02, 2004
Rotoworld AFL Review
A couple of Braves prospects garnered a mention in Matthew Pouliot's AFL Wrap-Up (Pt. 2) over at Rotoworld. Here is what he had to say:
Jeff Francoeur - OF Braves - Age 21I'd take another Mike Remlinger any day of the week.
.282/.301/.404, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 19/2 K/BB, 1 SB in 99 ABFrancoeur is one of the most talented outfielders in the minors, and he showed a great deal of potential while batting .293/.346/.506 for Single-A Myrtle Beach last season. His .197 average and identical .197 OBP in 76 at-bats after moving up to Double-A Greenville weren’t so encouraging, but he was just 20 years old. Francoeur hits to all fields and should someday boast 30-homer power. He’ll take over as Atlanta’s right fielder after spending at least one and possibly two more full seasons in the minors.
Macay McBride - LHP Braves - Age 22
0-1, 6.11 ERA, 39 H, 29/8 K/BB in 28 IP (7 starts)Even though he entered the season with a 2.72 ERA in 2 ½ years since being drafted 24th overall in 2001, McBride was quickly switched to the pen after getting off to a poor start for Double-A Greenville. His peripherals remained strong, but he ended up going 1-7 with a 4.44 ERA in 103 1/3 IP. McBride has the fastball-slider-changeup combination to make it as a starting pitcher, but the Braves have enough arms in front of him that they could groom him as a setup man. He might turn out to be the next Mike Remlinger. Expect him to spend most of 2005 in Triple-A.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 04:10 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBack
Winter Leagues Stat Update
Venezuelan Winter League stats (through games of 12/04):
Gregor Blanco -- .222 (14-for-63), 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB, 21 SO, 2 SB
J.C. Boscan -- .368 (32-for-87), 6 2B, HR, 14 RBI, 7 BB, 15 SO
Carlos Duran -- .333 (9-for-27), 2B, 3B, 4 RBI, BB, 3 SO
James Jurries -- .277 (28-for-101), 5 2B, 6 HR, 16 RBI, 11 BB, 25 SO
Billy McCarthy -- .250 (7-for-28), HR, 6 RBI, 3 BB, 10 SO
Jackson Melian -- .571 (8-for-14), 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, SO
Pete Orr -- .261 (37-for-142), 4 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 17 RBI, 7 BB, 27 SO, 5 SB
Jorge Velandia -- .185 (17-for-92), 7 2B, 3B, 11 RBI, 11 BB, 29 SO, SB
Kevin Barry -- 0-0, 2 Saves, 6.00 ERA, 6 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 SO
Buddy Hernandez -- 0-2, 3.60 ERA, 20 IP, 17 H, 4 BB, 15 SO
Notes -- Blanco, Boscan, Duran, Jurries, and Velandia were the only updates, all other stats stayed the same. Jurries is making a fair case to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.
Dominican Winter League stats (through games of 12/02):
Miguel Bernard -- .208 (5-for-24), 2B, 3B, 2 RBI, BB, 5 SO
Wilson Betemit -- .222 (12-for-54), 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 10 BB, 19 SO
Napoleon Calzado -- .275 (25-for-91), 2 2B, 3B, 4 RBI, 4 BB, 10 RBI, 4 SB
Nick Green -- .253 (21-for-83), 5 2B, 3B, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 11 BB, 23 SO, SB
Damon Hollins -- .133 (4-for-30), 2 2B, 3 BB, 8 SO
Tony Pena Jr. -- .143 (1-for-7), 2 SO
Andy Marte -- .250 (23-for-92), 5 2B, 3 HR, 18 RBI, 17 BB, 30 SO, SB
Brayan Pena -- .340 (32-for-94), 7 2B, 4 RBI, 9 BB, 11 SO
Adam Stern -- .278/.310 (15-for-54), 5 2B, 3B, 5 RBI, 3 BB, 10 SO, 4 SB
Jose Capellan -- 0-1, 4.73 ERA, 13 1/3 IP, 13 H, 2 BB, 12 SO
Roman Colon -- 0-1, 5.40, 6 2/3 IP, 9 H, 6 BB, 7 SO
Juan Cruz -- 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 2 1/3 IP, 3 H, BB, 4 SO
Dan Curtis -- 1-1, 2.03 ERA, 26 2/3 ERA, 27 H, 14 BB, 13 SO
Notes -- Capellan was rocked his last time out to the tune of seven runs - six earned - in 1 1/3 innings in his last start. Cruz had a very solid first outing. Curtis keeps getting it done with smoke and mirrors, just as he has always done. Brayan Pena leads the league in hitting, and Andy Marte is second in the league in RBI.
Mexican-Pacific League stats (through games of 12/02):
Isauro Pineda -- 2-1, 5.33 ERA, 25 1/3 IP, 26 H, 12 BB, 24 SO
Posted by Brad Dowdy at 10:24 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack












