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September 24, 2004
The 2004 **No Pepper** Top 50: #1-10
The 2004 **No Pepper** Top 50: #11-20
The 2004 **No Pepper** Top 50: #21-30
The 2004 **No Pepper** Top 50: #31-40
The 2004 **No Pepper** Top 50: #41-50
1. Andy Marte, 3b
Marte was the consensus #1 Braves prospect heading into the season, and he did nothing this year to dispute that ranking. He was troubled on two separate occasions this season by a sprained ankle, but when he was in the lineup he was electric. His power numbers are on the rise over the past three seasons, improving from one homer in every 25.70 at-bats between 2002 and 2003 combined, to one homer in every 16.83 at-bats in 2004. Overall, he hit .269/.364/.525 in 387 at-bats, with 23 homers and 28 doubles in 2004. His secondary average of .406 was 55 % greater than the league, and his OPS of .889 was 22% greater. His K/BB was a respectable 105/58.
Marte may never become a .300 hitter, but peak numbers in the majors approaching .285 with between 30-40 homers don't seem to be out of the question. Chipper Jones move back to third base poses a minor problem in the near term for Marte's ascent to the bigs, but I have a feeling that the issue will be resolved sooner rather than later.
2. Jeff Francoeur, of
Francoeur was having an amazing season in Myrtle Beach before fracturing his cheekbone on a fouled off bunt attempt in early July. The original diagnosis had him out until the end of the season, but in true Francoeur style, he worked his way back in just a little over a month, showing us all exactly what this kid is made of. On the field for the Pelicans, Jeff hit .293/.346/.508 in 331 at-bats, with 15 homers and 26 doubles. His SEC of .293 was 19% higher than the Carolina league average, and his OPS of .854 was also 19% higher. He did strikeout 69 times and drew just 22 walks, so that is an area for improvement.
He was all set for a promotion to Double-A Greenville prior to breaking his cheekbone, and he finally made it there in late August. In 79 at-bats for the G-Braves, he hit just .197 and whiffed 14 times without drawing a walk. 2005 should bring a return to Greenville, with eyes on Atlanta by late 2006.
3. Jose Capellan, rhp
One of the most talked about prospects in all of the minors this season, Capellan brought his 100 mph fastball with him whenever he took the mound. His meteoric rise from High-A at the start of the season to the majors at the end was a thrill ride at each stop along the way. A quick look at his minor league numbers:
Myrtle Beach -- 5-1, 1.94 ERA, 46 1/3 IP, 27 H, 62 SO, 11 BB, 0 HR
Greenville -- 5-1, 2.50 ERA, 50 1/3 IP, 53 H, 53 SO, 19 BB, 1 HR
Richmond -- 4-2, 2.51 ERA, 43 IP, 33 H, 37 SO, 15 BB, 0 HR
Combined -- 14-4, 2.33 ERA, 139 2/3 IP, 152 SO, 45 BB, 1 HR
Most young pitchers struggle when they move up a level during the season, but Capellan never seemed to have any trouble adjusting. He sometimes relies on his fastball too much, as shown in his two major league starts, but if he can refine his breaking pitches, he could become a top starter. Otherwise, he would be excellent out of the bullpen as a setup man/future closer. Either way, Capellan has a chance to dominate, and I'm going to sit back and enjoy the ride.
4. Dan Meyer, lhp
Meyer flaunted his impressive control for both Double-A Greenville and Triple-A Richmond in 2004. Between the two stops, he was 9-6 with a 2.50 ERA, striking out 146 and walking just 37 for nearly a 4/1 K/BB ratio. The college product is best known for his poise and tenacity on the mound, bringing a low-90's fastball, an excellent slider, and an ever improving changeup. I had him ahead of Capellan in my personal rankings until the last month of the season, and he could very well have the better major league career of the two. Meyer should have every opportunity to make the big club out of spring training in 2005.
5. Kyle Davies, rhp
Lost in the spotlight of Capellan and Meyer in front of him, and Jake Stevens behind him, Kyle Davies may have had the most impressive season of them all. He started the year out strong for High-A Myrtle Beach by going 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA in 75 1/3 innings, striking out 95 and walking 32. That earned him a promotion to Double-A Greenville, where he was arguably better, posting a 4-0 record with a 2.32 ERA in 62 innings, fanning 72 and walking 28. He did log one nondescript start at the end of the regular season for Triple-A Richmond, but was fantastic in his one playoff start for the R-Braves, giving up just two hits in 5 1/3 innings to send them to the IL finals.
Davies just turned 21 on September 9th, making the season he had even more impressive. The 2001 4th rounder may start 2005 back in Double-A, but the Georgia product is clearly hitting his stride and could be the top pitcher on this list next year.
6. Brian McCann, c
At first glance, McCann's numbers may not be impressive as some of the other top hitting prospects in the organization, but if you look a little closer, you quickly realize we have one of the top hitting catchers in all of the minor leagues. Batting from the left side, he hit .277/.337/.487 in 382 at-bats for Myrtle Beach, with 15 homers and 35 doubles (tied for best in the system). His SEC of .291 was 18% better than the league average, and his OPS was 15% greater. Combine all of that with his age (20), position, handedness, and offense suppressing ballpark, and McCann could be the long term answer behind the plate in Atlanta in a few seasons.
7. Jake Stevens, lhp
Stevens was selected in the third round of the 2003 draft, and was impressive enough in 47 innings for Orlando that season to skip over Danville and head to Rome to begin 2004. Needless to say, the 19 year-old didn't disappoint. He was 9-5 with a 2.27 ERA in 135 innings, fanning 140 and walking 39, while giving up just 100 hits for an outstanding 6.67 H/9 ratio. The sky is the limit for this young lefty, who should start next season in the pitchers haven known as Coastal Federal Field.
8. Anthony Lerew, rhp
Through the end of June, Lerew was firing away in Myrtle Beach just as he had done in every previous stop in the system. He was 7-3 with a 2.53 ERA in 85 1/3 IP, but things turned south the rest of the way. From July to the end of the year, all of his numbers went the wrong direction - hits and walks went up, and strikeouts went down. The final line: 8-9, 3.75 ERA, 144 IP, 145 H, 125 SO, 46 BB. He did spend a very short time on the DL in August, but the reported cause of his troubles was newfound velocity that he was unable to harness. Hopefully that is the case - not injury - and he will find himself back on track in 2005.
9. Ryan Langerhans, of
Langerhans has been hovering around the top 10 or 15 Braves prospects for the past few seasons, but he really opened some eyes with this year's breakout performance. Langer hit .298/.397/.518 in 456 at-bats for Triple-A Richmond this season, cranking out 20 homers and 34 doubles in the process. He boasted a secondary average of .364, 34% higher than the league average, and an OPS of .915, 19% higher than the league. He did fan 113 times at the plate, but his 70 walks more than made up for that. He also played impeccable defense, committing just three errors in 127 games in the outfield. Ryan could be a real asset at the next level - likely as a fourth outfielder to begin with. He should get every opportunity to head north with the team next spring.
10. Chuck James, lhp
James provided a strong 1-2 punch with Stevens in the Rome rotation in 2004. In 132 IP, he allowed just 92 hits (6.27 H/9 - wow!) on his way to a 10-5 season with a 2.25 ERA. He fanned 156 (tops on the team) and walked 48 so he showed decent command as well. By the time June rolled around, the 22 year-old had clearly shown he wasn't being challenged at the Low-A level, earning him a promotion to High-A Myrtle Beach, effective after the SAL All-Star game which he was scheduled to start. There was only one problem - he never made the start, or got that promotion.
He and Matt Esquivel were involved in an undisclosed incident in Charleston prior to the All-Star game, resulting in lengthy suspensions for both of them. When James' suspension was lifted, he was reassigned to Rome, where he spent the rest of the season overmatching his opponents, eventually being named as the top pitcher in the SAL at years end. He should start next season in Myrtle Beach, with eyes on Greenville before the season is out.
Posted by Brad Dowdy at September 24, 2004 07:29 AM
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Comments
Bravo Brad!
Thanks for the excellent work. Better than what I could have paid for at Baseballamerica.
Judging from your analysis we are:
1. Somehow loaded at outfield, catcher and pitcher.
2. Have more than 3 or 4 potential stars in the making.
3. Could have more than 3 players vying for a place on the major league roster next year.
4. Might be in the eviable position of having too many players for certain positions graduating to the majors at the same time.
Again thanks for what must have been a major effort.
Posted by: Johnny at September 24, 2004 11:49 AM
Thanks Johnny - I appreciate the compliment!
I think #2 on your list is really a big deal. There are some organizations that may not even have one guy that you could label as a potential star, while the Braves have at least three that you can put in that category. I count Marte, Francoeur, and McCann as my three, and if any of the pitchers from the group of Capellan, Meyer, Davies, and Stevens pan out over the next season or two - knowing that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect - we are in seriously good shape.
#4 also warrants consideration, because we are getting to the point where some of these guys are ready, or nearly ready, and we either need to see what they can do for us, or trade them to improve the major league club, a la J.D. Drew.
Posted by: Brad Dowdy at September 24, 2004 02:51 PM
Great work. It's always great to see it all in one place and laced with your insight.
We certainly have a ton of depth throughout the system and it is going to be interesting to see who ends up where next spring.
The other thing I like about our system is that there is a mix of different players. Braves have always stressed tools, but I see more "solid fundamental" players than I have seen in the past. Makes for the kind of synergy I think helps an organization.
Posted by: 50PoundHead at September 25, 2004 10:52 AM
I want to thank `No Pepper' not only for an engaging list, but for the coverage over the 2004 season. It has been a regular pleasure to come to this site and learn a great deal of information. I am certainly looking forward to the coverage of the offseason.
That said, the discussion about the status of talent in the organization is also quite interesting. What impresses me is that the Braves appear to have amassed a significant amout of `assets'(to go back to an earlier discussion) despite the fact that so many players who seemed to be central to their plans have gone. For instance, if one looks at last year's Braves Beat Top 50 it striking to see how many are no longer in the mix.
Wainwright (2), Nelson (4t), Pratt (7), Merricks (24) Lewis (46) and all departed as parts of trades. LaRoche (3) is now showing that he is going to be a fine major league (interestingly, Charles Thomas, who was hardly mentioned and Nick Green who was not have not only made the Braves, but had memorable impacts upon the 2004 season)first baseman.
Injuries, which can be predicted to undermine the predictive power of any Top 50 list, removed Chris Waters (31) and slowed the progress of others. The unexpected retirement of Ewin (34) and the release of Evert (12) and Yaron Peters (36)removed a few others. To be sure, some of these changes would occur every year to any organization. What is impressive is that the list looks at least as good as a year ago. Many, if not most, organizations would not be able to part with so many top prospects without facing a thin year or two.
More important, it says something about the vast amount of talent the Braves have garnered in recent years (much of it coming after 2000). Furthermore, it seems clear that there are another cluster of names in the lower minors who did not make the list, who have a chance to become solid prospects.
In short, JS and the Braves organization are to be congratulated on many smart decisions.
Finally, all of this will make `No Pepper' even more fun to read.
Posted by: Stephen at September 26, 2004 10:10 PM